The top-ranked Texas Longhorns will travel to Columbus to face the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 1 of the college football season on Saturday. Both of these teams have expectations of competing for the national championship this year and they will look to get a statement win in this SEC vs Big Ten matchup. Before the action begins at Ohio Stadium, continue reading to get my Texas vs Ohio State prediction.
Our Texas vs Ohio State Pick
- Pick: Under 47.5 points
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
- Broadcast: FOX
Texas vs Ohio State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State –1.5 | Texas +105 / Ohio State –125 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- This game is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal. Ohio State beat Texas 28‑14 thanks to a key goal line stand late. The Longhorns are seeking redemption and the Buckeyes are looking to prove that they are the better program at this point in time.
- Texas debuts Arch Manning as their full‑time starting quarterback in this game. Manning is the early Heisman Trophy favorite for this season.
- Ohio State turns to redshirt freshman Julian Sayin to replace last year’s starting quarterback in Will Howard. The Alabama transfer will have a ton of pressure on him right away after last year’s championship season for Ryan Day’s team.
- Both teams are expected to be elite on defense this season and it will be interesting to see whether these new-look offenses can keep up with them.
- Ohio State could have a dark horse Heisman Trophy contender in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Smith had a huge year last season for the Buckeyes and could make Sayin look good out of the gate if they are on the same page.
- The winner of this game will be the favorite to win the College Football Playoff after Week 1 and dealing with that pressure will be key for both sides.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas is 5‑0 straight up in their last five Week 1 games. But the Longhorns are just 1‑6 ATS in their last seven games against Big Ten opponents.
- Ohio State went 5‑1 ATS in its last six games during their run to the national championship.
- Texas games went 5-9-2 in the over/under market last season. Ohio State was 8-8 on totals and their defense was one of the best in the country last season.
Texas vs Ohio State Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas 20 – Ohio State 24
Win Probability: Texas 45%, Ohio State 55%
Final Thoughts
This game could go either way given how good both teams are. But I think we will see a low-scoring game no matter which team ends up winning the game. My best bet for this matchup is for the over to cash, as these two elite defensive teams should make life hard for quarterbacks who haven’t spent much time on the field in huge games yet in their careers.
