Texas Tech vs Utah Pick & Prediction – 9/20/2025
Texas Tech and Utah will open Big 12 play against each other on Saturday in Salt Lake City. Both teams are 3-0 and ranked in the top 20 in the country. They will look to make a statement against one another in their first conference test of the season. Here, I break down this matchup from Utah and make my Texas Tech vs Utah prediction for one of the biggest games of the weekend in college football.
Our Texas Tech vs Utah Pick
- Pick: Utah -3.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Game: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Utah Utes
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- Both of these teams have yet to play a close game this season. All three wins for both teams have come by at least 25 points and this game should be a lot more challenging for both of these Big 12 squads.
- Utah has dominated at home in recent years and they have one of the most difficult atmospheres for opponents to overcome in all of college football. The Utes could have the advantage based on home-field advantage alone.
- Both quarterbacks are off to great starts this season, albeit against weaker competition. Whichever quarterback can avoid regression against Big 12 competition will put their team in the best possible position to win this game.
Quarterback Play
Behren Morton’s September has been near-perfect. He has 11 touchdown passes and just one interception. He is averaging just over 300 passing yards per game but will have his hands full with a Utah defense that is known for generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Devon Dampier has been exactly what Utah needed after last year’s injury-riddled quarterback room prevented them from reaching their full potential. Dampier has seven touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception. He also leads the Utes in rushing yards and will need to make plays both with his arm and his legs to help his team get a win here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams are 3-0 against the spread early in the season.
- Both teams are 2-1 to the over heading into conference play.
- Utah is 0-2 all-time against Texas Tech. Both of those games took place in the 1970s and aren’t worth using to predict the outcome of this game.
Texas Tech vs Utah Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas Tech 23 – Utah 27
Win Probability: Texas Tech 32%, Utah 68%
Final Thoughts
Utah’s defense and home-field advantage should be the difference maker in this game. The Utes aren’t unbeatable in Salt Lake City, but they aren’t far off from it either. I will lay the points with the Utes in this game, as they should improve to 4-0 on the season both straight up and against the spread in this statement game in the Big 12.
