The Texas State Bobcats and UTSA Roadrunners will meet in what should be a fun matchup between Group of Five teams from Texas on Saturday. Texas State got a win in its first game since the news that they were going to be a Pac-12 team in future seasons. They will look to improve to 2-0 at the expense of a UTSA team that lost against Texas A&M last week. Before this game kicks off on Saturday, continue reading for my Texas State vs UTSA prediction.
Our Texas State vs UTSA Pick
- Pick: UTSA -3.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Texas State vs UTSA Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| UTSA –3.5 | UTSA –175 | Texas State +150 | 64.5 |
Key Storylines
- This is a new chapter in the I-35 rivalry. Less than 65 miles separate San Marcos and San Antonio and this will be a heated local matchup. Both fanbases travel well and Texas State should have some fans at the Alamodome.
- Texas State’s offense exploded in Week 1. They racked up over 600 total yards and 52 points in a win over Eastern Michigan. Brad Jackson impressed in his debut and the Bobcats will lean heavily on that momentum to win this rivalry game.
- UTSA took a 42-24 loss to Texas A&M in Week 1. But they did get a standout performance from running back Robert Henry Jr. He picked up 177 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against an SEC defense and that could make him even more of a threat this week.
- UTSA’s offensive line performed well despite last week’s loss. They gained 203 rushing yards as a team against a tough SEC opponent. Texas State also had success with the run and the battle of running games could decide this contest.
Quarterback Play
- Texas State: Brad Jackson showed poise and effectiveness in his debut. He had 214 passing yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions against Eastern Michigan.
- UTSA: Owen McCown was 19/32 passing for 121 yards and didn’t have any touchdowns against Texas A&M.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams covered the spread in their first games of the 2025 season.
- Both teams went over the totals in their season openers.
- UTSA leads the all-time series between these programs 5-1. Texas State won the most recent meeting between these teams in 2024.
Texas State vs UTSA Model Projection
- Score Projection: Texas State 28 – UTSA 32
- Win Probability: Texas State 40%, UTSA 60%
Final Thoughts
We should see an exciting and high-scoring game between Texas State and UTSA on Saturday afternoon. This game could come down to which team has the ball last. I’ll take UTSA to win and cover the spread at home, but I think that this game could go either way as both teams looked very impressive in different ways in Week 1.
