The final game in the opening week of the college football season features TCU and North Carolina on Monday night. This game is the beginning of the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill and there is a ton of intrigue surrounding his debut with the Tar Heels. Before kickoff from North Carolina, continue reading to get my thoughts on this game and my TCU vs North Carolina prediction.
Our TCU vs North Carolina Pick
- Pick: TCU -3
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: TCU vs North Carolina
- Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
- Broadcast: ESPN
TCU vs North Carolina Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | –3 | -155 | Over 56.5 |
| North Carolina | +3 | +135 | Under 56.5 |
Key Storylines
- Bill Belichick’s debut at UNC has generated national attention. Every moment of this opener will be under scrutiny as he looks to make an immediate impact with the program.
- TCU faced a similar situation to this a couple of seasons ago. They lost to Colorado in Deion Sanders’ debut as the head coach of the Buffaloes. The Horned Frogs will look to avoid a similar fate in this contest.
- TCU enters with a 9-4 record from last season and a solid returning unit under coach Sonny Dykes.
- UNC is undergoing a reboot with new staff and players via the transfer portal structured around Belichick’s defense-focused philosophy.
- All home tickets for UNC’s 2025 season have sold out. The buzz surrounding the program under Belichick is palpable. But none of that will matter if the team can’t deliver on the football field.
Quarterback Play
UNC’s quarterback looks to be South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez. His fit with this group is unproven but Belichick is known for spotting undervalued talent. TCU returns experience at the position with Josh Hoover at the helm. The question for Hoover will be how he performs without Jack Bech at wide receiver. Bech is in the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders and losing a pro receiver could be a problem for Hoover here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- North Carolina leads the all-time series against TCU by a 3-0 margin.
- These teams have not played against each other since 1997.
TCU vs North Carolina Model Projection
Score Projection: TCU 24 – North Carolina 17
Win Probability: TCU 60%, North Carolina 40%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a memorable college football game no matter who wins and no matter how close the game is. Seeing how North Carolina performs under Bill Belichick will be fascinating, and I am interested in how disciplined Belichick’s team will be given that discipline was his trademark in New England. But I think there will be some growing pains for Belichick and the Heels. I’ll lay the points with TCU, thanks in large part to their continuity at quarterback.
