The Saturday night game between the TCU Horned Frogs (6‑3) and BYU Cougars (8‑1) is one of the most important games of the week in college football. The Cougars enter off their first defeat of the season, while TCU is also trying to regain momentum after a loss last week. With Big 12 championship implications and College Football Playoff positioning on the line, the stakes are high in this game. Before it starts, you can find my TCU vs BYU prediction below.
Our TCU vs BYU Pick
Pick: BYU -3.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs vs BYU Cougars
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 10:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
For BYU, the immediate challenge is bouncing back from their 29‑7 defeat against the Texas Tech Red Raiders last week. That loss ended their undefeated run and raised questions about their offense under pressure. The Cougars are still very much alive in the conference and playoff pictures and know this game at home is a must‑win.
TCU had a promising start at 3‑0, but losses in three of their last six games have dampened their momentum. Their offense via quarterback Josh Hoover remains productive. Hoover has 2,690 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions so far this season. BYU’s defense will need to neutralize that aerial threat.
TCU’s injury list is something to monitor going into this Big 12 matchup. They will be without running back Kevorian Barnes, wide receiver Ed Small, and other key contributors for this road contest. BYU will try to take advantage of that to keep their playoff hopes alive for another week.
Quarterback Play
Josh Hoover continues to lead the TCU offense with poise. He must avoid costly mistakes against a BYU defense that is strong in generating takeaways with 16 turnovers forced this season. BYU true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has shown flashes of maturity in his first season. He has thrown for 1,881 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has added 420 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. His ability to extend plays and run when needed gives BYU another dimension that TCU must account for.
Betting Trends
- BYU is 6‑3 against the spread this season. They are 4-5 on over/unders going into this game.
- TCU is 4‑4‑1 against the spread this year and 4‑5 on over/unders.
TCU vs BYU Model Projection
Score Projection: BYU 30 – TCU 24
Win Probability: BYU 65%, TCU 35%
Final Thoughts
I’m going to take the BYU Cougars to win at home and to cover the spread in this contest from Provo. The Cougars don’t have the same explosive passing attack that TCU has developed over the last couple of seasons. But BYU is the more well-rounded team going into this game. The Cougars should get the win on their home turf here and keep their Big 12 title hopes and their College Football Playoff hopes alive with two games left in the regular season.
