The TCU Horned Frogs and Arizona State Sun Devils will meet in Big 12 play on Friday night. TCU is 3-0 on the season and comes into this game in the top 25 in the country. They will look to stay perfect on the road against an Arizona State team that got a win in its first conference game of the season. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup from Tempe and I bring you my TCU vs Arizona State prediction.
Our TCU vs Arizona State Pick
- Pick: TCU Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 9:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
- Broadcast: FOX
TCU vs Arizona State Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona State -2.5 |
| Moneyline | Arizona State -140, TCU +120 |
| Total | 55.5 |
Key Storylines
Quarterback Play
TCU’s Josh Hoover has been exceptional this season. He has completed 70 of 103 passes for 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He has done this with Horned Frogs wide receiver Jack Bech moving onto the NFL after last season. Hoover’s performance has been instrumental in TCU’s undefeated start.
Arizona State’s Sean Leavitt has also been solid, with 748 passing yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. Nearly half of his passing yards have come to wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who has 357 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Both quarterbacks will be key to the success of their teams in this matchup.
Big 12 Implications
This is the first Big 12 game of the season for TCU after a 3-0 non-conference slate. The Horned Frogs won their three non-conference games by double-digits, including a win over Bill Belichick and North Carolina in their season opener. But all of that will be for naught if they can’t get off to a good start in conference play.
Arizona State is 1-0 in conference competition already this year. They defeated Baylor 27-24 on the road last week and will try to deliver a similar performance in their first home conference game of the 2025 campaign.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Arizona State is 2-2 against the spread to start the 2025 season.
- TCU is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread through their first three games of the year.
- Three of the first four games have gone under the total for Arizona State this year.
- Two of TCU’s first three games of the season have gone over their totals.
TCU vs Arizona State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Arizona State 24, TCU 27
- Win Probability: Arizona State 45%, TCU 55%
Final Thoughts
TCU already has a road win over a power conference team under their belt this season. While Arizona State will be a stern challenge for the Horned Frogs, I think that TCU will get the job done in this contest. Hoover’s ability to move the ball through the air will continue to make the difference for TCU and they will move to 1-0 in Big 12 play after Friday night.
