SMU vs Missouri State Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2025
The SMU Mustangs will take on the Missouri State Bears in Week 3 of the college football season on Saturday. SMU heads to Springfield after a heartbreaking loss last week and they will look to bounce back against a Missouri State team that earned its first win as an FBS team a week ago. Here, I break down this non-conference matchup in college football and give you my SMU vs Missouri State prediction.
Our SMU vs Missouri State Pick
- Pick: SMU -27.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- Missouri State plays its first FBS home game after transitioning from the FCS. They should draw a big crowd for that occasion, but you never know in small-conference college football.
- SMU is coming off a loss to Baylor in double overtime. They blew a late lead in that game to go to overtime and they failed to operate successfully on offense during the overtime periods. They are heavy favorites to bounce back on the road here.
- Missouri State got their first win as an FBS program last week against Marshall. The Bears have been blown out by USC and beat Marshall last week. SMU is in between those two teams in terms of quality, so it will be interesting to see how Missouri State looks here.
Quarterback Play
Kevin Jennings looks comfortable leading an offense that finished 2024 at 36.5 points per game and returned plenty of skill production. Jennings has five touchdown passes and two interceptions through two games and the loss to Baylor certainly wasn’t on him. Jennings will aim to continue to play well here and will hope that his defense can help him get a win.
Jacob Clark has played well to this point in the year for Missouri State. He has just over 500 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Ups and downs are to be expected from him while leading a new team to FBS competition. But Clark has been commendable so far and will try to continue improving in Missouri State’s home opener.
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first-ever meeting between these programs.
- SMU is 0-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Missouri State is 1-1 ATS early in the 2025 season.
SMU vs Missouri State Model Projection
Score Projection: SMU 49 – Missouri State 17
Win Probability: SMU 88%, Missouri State 12%
Final Thoughts
This will be a historic day for the Missouri State football program. But I’m not sure that it is going to go well for them. SMU should continue rolling offensively here against an overmatched Missouri State defense and the Mustangs’ defense should show up after a bad performance last week. I will lay the points with the Mustangs here in a great bounce-back spot for them.
