TCU and SMU will face off in the Battle for the Iron Skillet on Saturday afternoon. TCU enters at 2-0 and riding momentum after a strong start to their season that included a blowout of North Carolina. SMU is 2-1 and has been explosive but faltered down the stretch in their first real test of the season. Here, we take a closer look at this matchup between Texas teams and you can find my SMU vs TCU prediction below.
Our SMU vs TCU Pick
- Pick: TCU −6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN2
SMU vs TCU Odds
| Odds Type | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | TCU −6.5 |
| Moneyline | SMU +210 / TCU −250 |
| Over/Under | 63.5 |
Key Storylines
- TCU is unbeaten so far and their offensive production has been impressive. They piled up over 540 yards and 48 points against North Carolina in a statement win to open the season. Their offense is clicking and they are expected to put pressure on SMU’s defense. SMU, meanwhile, has had big scoring games but also some defensive lapses and turnover issues.
- This is the last scheduled Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future, so emotions will be high. Rivalry games like this often generate unpredictability on both sides. Expect the unexpected in this game.
- SMU’s offense is led by Kevin Jennings, who has decent passing numbers but also contributed to their collapse against Baylor. Their rushing attack has potential but may struggle if TCU’s front slows them down.
Quarterback Play
- SMU’s Kevin Jennings has thrown for 836 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions so far. His ability to stretch the field is a plus, but his interception total suggests SMU must protect the ball better to avoid more losses like the one they suffered against Baylor.
- TCU’s Josh Hoover has been sharp. He is 48-of-63 for 621 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception. He’s aided by a strong offensive line and solid receiving options. If Hoover keeps up that level, TCU likely continues their winning ways.
Betting Trends & H2H
- TCU is 1-1 against the spread to start the season.
- SMU is 0-3 against the spread through their first three games.
- SMU is 1-2 on over/unders to begin the season.
- TCU has gone over the total in both of their games so far this year.
SMU vs TCU Model Projection
- Score Projection: TCU 35 ‒ SMU 28
- Win Probability: TCU 72%, SMU 28%
Final Thoughts
This game shapes up as one where TCU has more consistency, especially in quarterback play, and SMU has to be close to perfect on offense while minimizing turnovers. Taking TCU −6.5 is the way to go, especially since SMU has yet to cover spreads and TCU already has the momentum. Expect the Horned Frogs to remain undefeated on the season and for the Mustangs to drop to 2-2 in the last matchup between these in-state rivals for the foreseeable future.
