Notre Dame and Purdue will face off in Week 4 of the college football season in South Bend on Saturday. Notre Dame comes into this game at 0-2 on the year and they may have already ruined their chances of making the College Football Playoff. Here, I will break down whether or not Notre Dame could lose again, and you can find my Purdue vs Notre Dame prediction below.
Our Purdue vs Notre Dame Pick
- Pick: Notre Dame -26.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup: | Purdue Boilermakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
| Date & Time: | Saturday, September 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT |
| Venue: | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Broadcast: | NBC / Peacock |
Key Storylines
- Notre Dame is 0-2 despite being competitive in both games. Losses to Miami and Texas A&M were close games but the Irish haven’t made the winning plays down the stretch that they have needed to make. Marcus Freeman’s team still retains a spot in the AP Poll at number 24 and will hope to get their first win of the season here.
- Purdue has a 2-1 record to start the season. But its performance against USC exposed vulnerabilities on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers have wins over Ball State and FCS Southern Illinois. But they have failed their only power conference test and will try to avoid losing to another blue blood college football program here.
- Psychological factor: Notre Dame is at home and needs a win to get back on track. Purdue is the underdog with less to lose. That can sometimes lead to closer games than spreads suggest if the underdog grinds hard, but the talent gap here is large.
Quarterback Play
Notre Dame’s QB CJ Carr has thrown for 514 yards over his first few games, with three passing touchdowns and two interceptions. He is still settling in and trying to rebuild rhythm as Notre Dame’s first quarterback following the Riley Leonard era. Purdue’s quarterback situation features Ryan Browne, who has thrown for 786 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. Browne threw three interceptions against USC and he will need to take better care of the ball to give his team a chance in this contest.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Notre Dame leads the all-time series against Purdue at 58-26-2. The Irish haven’t lost to Purdue since 2007.
- Purdue is 2-1 against the spread to start the season.
- Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS after losing their first two games.
Purdue vs Notre Dame Model Projection
| Score Projection: | Notre Dame 38 – Purdue 10 |
| Win Probability: | Notre Dame 93%, Purdue 7% |
Final Thoughts
Notre Dame is expected to respond to their 0-2 start with a convincing win here. With superior talent, home-field advantage, and a defense that will be eager to respond to last week’s poor performance, the Irish should cover the large spread. Purdue is unlikely to keep pace with the Irish in what should be Notre Dame’s first win of the season.
