Rivalry Week comes early in 2025 as Oregon State visits Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Saturday. The Beavers are 0-3 despite big production from new quarterback Maalik Murphy. The Ducks are 3-0 with emphatic wins in all three of their games this season. Before the action begins from Eugene, you can continue reading to get my Oregon State vs Oregon prediction for this contest.
Our Oregon State vs Oregon Pick
- Pick: Oregon -34.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Key Storylines
- Oregon’s start has been explosive. The Ducks have won each of their first three games by 20 points or more. They are ranked sixth in the nation coming into this weekend’s games and will look to prove themselves once again here.
- Maalik Murphy gives Oregon State real arm talent. The problem is that the Beavers around him have not been nearly good enough. Oregon State is off to an 0-3 start and two of their three losses have come by double-digits.
- This is a great rivalry that was taken away from us when the Pac-12 was carved up by the ACC and Big Ten. Getting this matchup in non-conference play still feels strange, but it is better than not having this rivalry game at all.
Quarterback Play
Dante Moore looks comfortable leading an Oregon offense that stretches the field horizontally and vertically. He has seven touchdown passes and just one interception to this point in the season. Moore has been incredibly efficient, completing 78% of his passes. He will look to stay efficient to lead his team to another win.
Maalik Murphy’s box scores jump off the page for Oregon State. He has averaged just under 300 passing yards per game so far this season. But his turnovers have been a concern for the Beavers. Murphy has six touchdown passes and five interceptions. He will need to be safer with the football if the Beavers are going to get into the win column anytime soon.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Oregon is 2-1 against the spread to start the season.
- Oregon State is 0-3 against the spread for the year.
- Both teams are 2-1 in the over/under market to begin the year.
- Oregon holds a 68-51-10 advantage all-time over Oregon State.
Oregon State vs Oregon Model Projection
Score Projection: Oregon State 20 – Oregon 56
Win Probability: Oregon State 15%, Oregon 85%
Final Thoughts
Oregon is operating at a much higher level than Oregon State so far this season and that is expected to continue in this game. I’ll lay the points with Oregon at home here. As tempting as it would be to take so many points in a rivalry game, this is clearly not the same Oregon State team that used to be competitive in the Pac-12. The Ducks will win big here to improve to 4-0.
