The North Carolina Tar Heels and Charlotte 49ers both lost their first games of the 2025 college football season. They will look to bounce back at the expense of one another when they face off in Charlotte on Saturday night. North Carolina is a two-score favorite going into this game as they look to help Bill Belichick earn his first win as their head coach. Before this game gets started, continue reading to get my North Carolina vs Charlotte prediction.
Our North Carolina vs Charlotte Pick
- Pick: Charlotte +13.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Charlotte 49ers
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC
- Broadcast: ESPN+
North Carolina vs Charlotte Odds
| Betting Line | North Carolina | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -13.5 | +13.5 |
| Moneyline | -650 | +425 |
| Total | 49.5 | |
Key Storylines
- North Carolina’s Offensive Struggles: The Tar Heels’ offense was ineffective in their opener. They gained only 222 total yards and committed three turnovers in their 48-14 home loss to TCU.
- Quarterback Situation: Max Johnson provided a spark off the bench against TCU but it’s uncertain whether he will start against Charlotte.
- Charlotte’s Motivation: Charlotte quarterback Conner Harrell is a former Tar Heel and faces his old team here. That could mean extra motivation for the 49ers going into a big non-conference game at home.
- Belichick Seeks First Win: The start of the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill could not have got off to a worse start. Belichick and his Tar Heels will look to bounce back from that disappointing result this week.
Quarterback Play
- Max Johnson (UNC): Completed 9 of 11 passes for 103 yards and one touchdown in relief against TCU. It will be interesting to see how much Johnson plays in this contest after looking like the better quarterback for the Heels last week.
- Conner Harrell (Charlotte): Harrell threw for 142 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the 49ers’ loss to App State. He needs to be more efficient for his team to have a chance this week.
Betting Trends & H2H
- North Carolina: 0-1 against the spread this season.
- Charlotte: 0-1 against the spread this season.
- Head-to-Head: These teams have played just once all-time. That game was a 38-20 victory for North Carolina in 2024.
North Carolina vs Charlotte Model Projection
- Score Projection: North Carolina 29, Charlotte 25
- Win Probability: North Carolina 69%, Charlotte 31%
Final Thoughts
North Carolina is a heavy favorite going into this game but it isn’t clear whether or not they should be. Their quarterback situation is undecided, their defense was dreadful at home last week, and there is no evidence that their coach is cut out to perform well in big-time college football. North Carolina should win this game no matter what happens but I am going to take the points with Charlotte in what should be a close contest.
