The Miami Hurricanes (6-1) and SMU Mustangs (5-3) will meet in an important ACC contest in college football on Saturday. Miami is ranked 10th in the country and trying to work its way back into position to control its own destiny in the race for the ACC title game. They will need to avoid an upset against the Mustangs to improve their chances of that happening. Here, I break down this conference matchup in the ACC and give you my Miami vs SMU prediction.
Our Miami vs SMU Pick
- Pick: SMU +10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Hurricanes vs SMU Mustangs
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Miami enters this game off a dominant 42-7 win over Stanford. That win for Miami improved its record to 6-1 and proved its defense can deliver against a Power 5 opponent. But Stanford has been one of the worst power conference programs this year and this will serve as more of a test for the Canes.
- SMU sits at 5-3 (3-1 ACC) and is coming off a 13-12 loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Mustangs are talented and will need to bounce back from their disappointing loss in their last game to avoid letting this season get away from them.
- This will be Miami’s first true road game of the season outside of Florida. It will test the Hurricanes’ composure away from home and will give the Canes a chance to get a road win in conference play that would improve their College Football Playoff resume.
Quarterback Play
Miami quarterback Carson Beck has thrown for 1,673 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions this season. The Miami offense hasn’t been convincing against serious competition and Beck has been partially responsible for that lately.
Kevin Jennings has better raw passing numbers than Beck. He has thrown for 2,119 yards, 17 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for SMU. He needs to cut back on the interceptions, but the talent is clearly there for Jennings.
Betting Trends
- Miami is 5-2 against the spread so far this season.
- SMU is 2-6 against the spread going into this game.
- Miami is 3-4 on over/unders going into this matchup.
- SMU has gone under the total in six of its first eight games.
Miami vs SMU Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami 30 – SMU 21
Win Probability: Miami 78%, SMU 22%
Final Thoughts
I am going to take the points with SMU as an underdog in this game. The Mustangs have plenty of flaws this year and have been somewhat disappointing after last year’s trip to the College Football Playoff. But the Canes have not left the state of Florida yet this season and I think we will see the Canes locked into a competitive contest here, even if they should ultimately get the win in Texas.
