The stage is set for Saturday’s renewal of the Governor’s Cup rivalry as the Kentucky Wildcats travel to face the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday. Louisville is pushing for an eighth win and Kentucky is fighting for its postseason life in this contest. Add the rivalry factor into the equation and there will be a high level of intensity all over the place in this contest. Before kickoff from Louisville, continue reading for my Kentucky vs Louisville prediction.
Our Kentucky vs Louisville Pick
- Pick: Kentucky +3
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
- Broadcast: ACC Network
Key Storylines
- Senior Day energy for Louisville: Louisville will honor a large senior class, creating an emotional backdrop on top of the emotions from playing in this year’s rivalry game against Kentucky. With the Cardinals trying to lock down an important late-season win, the atmosphere should be intense from kickoff on their side
- Kentucky chasing bowl eligibility: At 5–6, Kentucky needs to win this game to reach the six-win mark and become bowl eligible. They should play hard with that in mind, but playing hard hasn’t been enough for them to rack up the wins consistently this year.
- Both teams coming off blowout losses: Louisville is trying to rebound from a 38–6 defeat against SMU, while Kentucky enters after falling 45–17 to Vanderbilt. The Cards have dropped three games in a row going into this matchup. Momentum is nowhere to be found for either squad, setting up a scenario where discipline and execution will help determine which side recovers first.
Quarterback Play
Louisville quarterback Miller Moss has passed for 2,344 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while completing more than 64% of his throws. His connection with wideout Chris Bell has been impressive. Bell has accumulated 917 yards and 6 touchdowns and he is one of Louisville’s clearest advantages on offense.
Kentucky will go with Cutter Boley at quarterback, who has thrown for 2,060 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Kentucky prefers to move the ball on the ground, but Boley needs to take care of the football when he is asked to put it in the air.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Kentucky leads the overall series 20–16, though Louisville claimed the most recent meeting between these teams in dominant fashion.
- Louisville is 3-8 against the spread for the season.
- Kentucky has gone 5-6 against the spread this year.
- The under has hit in 6 of Louisville’s first 11 games.
- Kentucky has gone over the total 8 times in 11 outings.
Kentucky vs Louisville Model Projection
Score Projection: Louisville 24 – Kentucky 23
Win Probability: Louisville 62%, Kentucky 38%
Final Thoughts
I am taking the points with a desperate Kentucky team in this matchup. The Wildcats are going to make this game an ugly one by playing solid defense and running the ball. They should keep this game close, even if Louisville may ultimately win it on their home turf.
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