Iowa State and Cincinnati will lock horns in the Big 12 on Saturday afternoon. The Cyclones are unbeaten at 5-0 for the season and are trying to keep it that way this week. But they are slight underdogs on the road against a Cincinnati team that is off to an unexpectedly strong start. Here, I take a closer look at this conference game in the Big 12 and bring you my Iowa State vs Cincinnati prediction.
Our Iowa State vs Cincinnati Pick
- Pick: Iowa State Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones vs Cincinnati Bearcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Odds
| Type | Iowa State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 | –1.5 |
| Moneyline | +105 | –125 |
| Total (O/U) | 55.5 | |
Key Storylines
Iowa State is undefeated at 5-0 and is ranked, yet it is a slight underdog on the road. Oddsmakers have Cincinnati favored by about 1.5 points. Many analysts have flagged that as curious, given Iowa State’s consistency so far this season. There’s been early public money backing the Cyclones, but no sizable line movement.
Cincinnati arrives off a thrilling 37–34 win at Kansas, giving them a win in their Big 12 opener. The Bearcats have won three games in a row after dropping their opener in a neutral site against Nebraska. Cincinnati has a very good shot at being ranked after this week if they can find a way to win against the Cyclones.
Quarterback Play
Iowa State’s Rocco Becht has been the engine of their offense. He has passed for 1,103 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s also accounted for five rushing touchdowns, making him a dual threat that Cincinnati has to respect. He tallied three scores on the ground in his team’s win over Arizona last time out. Becht is a big reason Iowa State remains undefeated.
Brendan Sorsby has had a great start to the season for Cincinnati. He has thrown 10 touchdown passes and just one interception through Cincinnati’s first four games. Iowa State will have to play their best defensive game of this season to shut down Sorsby and the Bearcats’ aerial attack.
Betting Trends
- Iowa State is 3-1-1 against the spread heading into this week’s action.
- Cincinnati has covered the spread in three of its first four games.
- Three of Iowa State’s first five games have stayed under their totals.
- Cincinnati has seen three of its first four games go over their respective totals.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa State 28 – Cincinnati 24
Win Probability: Iowa State 55%, Cincinnati 45%
Final Thoughts
Cincinnati has home-field advantage and is certainly playing well coming into this game. But I am not convinced that the Bearcats’ defense will be able to slow down a dual-threat quarterback like Becht in a game this big. I will take the Cyclones to win on the road as slight underdogs, as they should improve to 6-0 and inch closer to the top 10 in the rankings.
