The Vanderbilt Commodores (3-0) will host the Georgia State Panthers (1-2) on Saturday at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. Vanderbilt enters the game as a significant favorite after getting a win against an SEC opponent last week. Georgia State is 0-1 against SEC competition already this year and will try to pull off a huge upset on the road. Before kickoff from SEC country, continue reading to get my Georgia State vs Vanderbilt prediction.
Our Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Pick
- Pick: Vanderbilt -27.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Georgia State Panthers vs Vanderbilt Commodores
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Key Storylines
- Vanderbilt’s Dominant Start: The Commodores have opened the season with three consecutive wins, including a decisive 31-7 victory over South Carolina last week. They are allowing just 10 points per game to start the year and they will look to dominate on defense again in this non-conference matchup.
- Georgia State’s Struggles: The Panthers have faced challenges on defense, allowing over 40 points per game and ranking 126th nationally in run defense. The Panthers are 0-2 against FBS opponents to start the year and they should struggle again in this matchup.
- Revenge Factor: Vanderbilt will be motivated to avenge last season’s 36-32 upset loss to Georgia State. Vandy looks primed to do so, but last year’s game between these teams proved that anything can happen in college football.
Quarterback Play
- Vanderbilt: Quarterback Diego Pavia has been efficient and effective. He has completed 73.5% of his passes for 645 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. His dual-threat capability adds a dynamic element to the Commodores’ offense that Georgia State might struggle with.
- Georgia State: TJ Finley leads the Panthers with 351 passing yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Finley faces a tough challenge against Vanderbilt’s stout defense this week. He has to do a better job of limiting interceptions to give his team a chance here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Vanderbilt: The Commodores have covered the spread in all three games this season, including a 24-point win over South Carolina.
- Georgia State: The Panthers have struggled against the spread, failing to cover in their last three games.
- Head-to-Head: Vanderbilt leads the all-time series 2-1, with Georgia State’s lone victory coming in last season’s upset.
Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Model Projection
- Score Projection: Vanderbilt 45 – Georgia State 10
- Win Probability: Vanderbilt 97.6%, Georgia State 2.4%
Final Thoughts
Vanderbilt enters this game with a strong defense and an efficient offense, while Georgia State has struggled in both areas. The Commodores will be motivated to avenge last season’s upset and continue their dominant start to the season. I am going to lay the points with Vandy in this game, as they should improve to 4-0 and avenge last season’s loss to their opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
