The Florida State Seminoles (3-0) will face the Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) on Friday night at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. This ACC matchup features two high-scoring offenses and both will look to make a statement against a conference opponent here. Before kickoff from Charlottesville, continue reading to get my Florida State vs Virginia prediction for Week 5 of the college football season.
Our Florida State vs Virginia Pick
- Pick: Virginia +7
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida State Seminoles vs Virginia Cavaliers
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 7:00 p.m. EDT
- Venue: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Florida State vs Virginia Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | -7 | -270 | Over 59.5 |
| Virginia | +7 | +220 | Under 59.5 |
Key Storylines
- Florida State’s Offensive Dominance: The Seminoles have been explosive on offense, averaging 628.7 yards per game, including 363 rushing yards per game. They recently defeated Kent State 66-10, showcasing their offensive prowess. But the Seminoles aren’t likely to put up those kinds of numbers against an ACC opponent this week.
- Virginia’s High-Scoring Attack: The Cavaliers have been impressive offensively, averaging 564.5 yards per game. In their last game, they defeated Stanford 48-20. Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 380 yards and had five total touchdowns.
- Quarterback Play: Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos has been effective, throwing for 594 yards and three touchdowns. Virginia’s Chandler Morris leads the Cavaliers with 1,050 passing yards and eight touchdowns. Both quarterbacks have been efficient early in the year and they will look to put forth another impressive performance to win this contest and keep their zero in the loss column in conference play.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Florida State: 3-0 against the spread this season and they are ranked eighth in the country coming into this game.
- Virginia: Virginia is off to a 3-1 start against the spread during the 2025 season.
- Head-to-Head: Florida State is 15-4 all-time against Virginia. These teams have not played since 2019, with Virginia winning that game in Charlottesville over the Seminoles.
Florida State vs Virginia Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida State 34 – Virginia 28
Win Probability: Florida State 75%, Virginia 25%
Final Thoughts
Both of these teams have been excellent offensively to start this season. We should see less offensive output from both teams against conference opponents here. But there should still be a good amount of scoring in this Friday night matchup. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread as a home underdog in this game, as they should do enough scoring to remain competitive in this game. But I expect the Seminoles to win the game when all is said and done.
