Louisville will host California in an important game in the ACC on Saturday night. The Cardinals have lost just one conference game so far this season and will look to keep their hopes of reaching the ACC title game alive with a win here. Cal will attempt to pull off an upset on the road behind the play of their talented freshman quarterback. Who will get the job done in Kentucky? You can find my Cal vs Louisville prediction below before the action begins.
Our Cal vs Louisville Pick
- Pick: Over 49.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: California Golden Bears vs Louisville Cardinals
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- Louisville’s momentum: Louisville comes into this game on a three-game winning streak that includes a win over the Miami Hurricanes on the road. The Cardinals are 7-1 overall and 4-1 in the ACC. They are in the mix to make the ACC title game and will try to get another important win for their postseason aspirations here.
- Cal’s uphill climb: California is 5-4 overall and 2-3 in ACC play. The Golden Bears have dropped three of their last four games, including a 31-21 loss at home against Virginia last Saturday. Cal’s defense has struggled of late and they face another tough challenge against Miller Moss and the Louisville offense.
Quarterback Play
Louisville quarterback Miller Moss has completed right around two-thirds of his passes this season. He has logged 1,929 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Limiting mistakes and forcing Cal to go the length of the field to score will be key for Moss and his team in this game.
Cal’s Jaron‑Keawe Sagapolutele is a true freshman making his first extended run as the starting QB at the collegiate level. He has thrown for 2,195 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. The defense he faces in Louisville will test his adjustment to ACC‑level competition.
Betting Trends
- Louisville is 3-5 against the spread this season.
- Cal has only covered the spread in three of nine games thus far.
- Louisville is 4-4 on over/unders going into this weekend’s action.
- Cal is 3-5-1 on their over/unders for the year heading into this game.
Cal vs Louisville Model Projection
Score Projection: California 17 – Louisville 35
Win Probability: Louisville 78%, California 22%
Final Thoughts
We should see enough scoring on both sides to get this game over the total. Louisville will do the majority of the scoring in this contest. But Cal will do its part thanks to the passing of JKS while the Golden Bears are playing catch-up in the second half. My best bet for this important ACC game is the over.
