The Louisville Cardinals (2‑0) will host the Bowling Green Falcons (2‑1) on Saturday afternoon. Louisville aims to earn a third straight double-digit win in non-conference play. Bowling Green is off to a decent start under new head coach Eddie George and will try to pull off an upset win over an ACC opponent. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this contest, including my Bowling Green vs Louisville prediction.
Our Bowling Green vs Louisville Pick
- Pick: Bowling Green +26.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup: | Bowling Green Falcons vs Louisville Cardinals |
| Date & Time: | Saturday, September 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET |
| Venue: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Broadcast: | ACC Network |
Bowling Green vs Louisville Odds
| Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville | −26.5 | Over 50.5 |
| Bowling Green | +26.5 | Under 50.5 |
Key Storylines
- New Look at Bowling Green: Under Eddie George, Bowling Green has switched to a spread offense that emphasizes short passing and outside zone runs. QB Drew Pyne has completed around 67% of his passes, but the offense lacks big chunk plays. Bowling Green will need to control the ball and avoid turnovers to stay competitive.
- Louisville’s defensive strength: Louisville has had strong performances stopping both air and ground attacks. Their pass defense is among the best in FBS in terms of yards allowed through the air. The Cardinals will look to pressure Pyne and force mistakes.
- Scoring trends & totals: Louisville is averaging nearly 40 points per game, while Bowling Green is closer to 23 points per contest.
- Motivation & momentum: Louisville is undefeated and wants to assert their dominance at home. Bowling Green hasn’t beaten a team with depth and defensive strength like Louisville. The Falcons must avoid penalties, turnovers, and big plays allowed if they want to keep this close and attempt to shock the world.
Quarterback Play
Louisville’s offense is led by Miller Moss, who has thrown for over 370 yards through two games but also has thrown a couple of interceptions. His big play potential and ability to target receivers vertically and through intermediate routes gives Louisville an edge, especially against a Bowling Green secondary that hasn’t been tested against an offense like this just yet.
Drew Pyne’s performance is more about efficiency than flash for the Falcons. He’s completing a high percentage of his passes, but hasn’t generated many explosive gains. Bowling Green may lean on the run game or short passes to mitigate Louisville’s pass rush.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Louisville is 0‑2 against the spread this season.
- Bowling Green has covered twice in three games.
- Only one Louisville game so far has gone over the total.
- Bowling Green is 1-2 on over/unders to begin their season.
Bowling Green vs Louisville Model Projection
Score Projection: Louisville 30 – Bowling Green 13
Win Probability: Louisville 88%, Bowling Green 12%
Final Thoughts
Louisville is clearly the stronger team here. But the spread of 26.5 points is steep. Given Bowling Green’s ability to move the ball in a controlled fashion and maintain some time of possession, there is reasonable hope they keep this closer than many expect. Bowling Green +26.5 is my best bet for this non-conference contest. Louisville will pull away in the second half to secure a comfortable win but Bowling Green will cover the spread.
