The Baylor Bears will face the SMU Mustangs in an all-Texas college football matchup on Saturday afternoon. Baylor will look to bounce back from a loss in the opening week of the 2025 season against an SMU team that cruised against an FCS opponent in Week 1. Before these Texas teams face off, continue reading to get my breakdown of this matchup, including my Baylor vs SMU prediction.
Our Baylor vs SMU Pick
- Pick: SMU -3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: The CW Network
Baylor vs SMU Odds
| Betting Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | -3 | -150 | Over 65.5 |
| Baylor | +3 | +130 | Under 65.5 |
Key Storylines
- Baylor’s Offensive Performance: Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns against Auburn. But the Tigers struggled to convert in critical moments and went 3/6 on fourth down conversion attempts. They will need to clean up their execution in critical downs.
- SMU’s Defensive Strength: SMU’s defense shut down East Texas A&M in the opening week of the season. The Mustangs recorded three sacks and two interceptions but their defense might not look as good this week against their first FBS opponent of the year.
- Coaching Dynamics: SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee has a strong record when his team scores over 30 points. His teams have a 27-2 record in such games. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda will need to adjust his defensive strategies to counter SMU’s offense.
Quarterback Play
Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson demonstrated impressive passing skills in the loss to Auburn. But his big passing numbers weren’t enough last week and might not be enough if Auburn’s defense isn’t better this week. SMU’s quarterback Kevin Jennings was effective in last week’s guarantee game win. He threw for 260 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in SMU’s season opener and will try to prove himself against an FBS opponent here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- SMU’s Home Advantage: SMU has a strong home record. They have won 15 of their last 16 home games and will try to continue their winning ways at home this weekend.
- ATS Performance: Both of these teams failed to cover the spread in their season openers.
- Head-to-Head: Baylor leads the all-time series between these teams 37-35-5. Baylor has won 12 straight games against SMU with the last game between these teams coming in 2016.
Baylor vs SMU Model Projection
Score Projection: SMU 38 – Baylor 31
Win Probability: SMU 66.9%, Baylor 33.1%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a really exciting game between these teams. Baylor should be able to execute better on key downs offensively. But their defense is going to struggle again here against an SMU team that could contend for a College Football Playoff spot later in the year. I’ll lay the points with SMU here as they should pick apart Baylor’s defense on Saturday.
