The Army Black Knights (1–2) will travel to North Carolina to face the East Carolina Pirates (2–2) on Thursday night. This is the American Athletic Conference opener for East Carolina, who will look to take down an Army team that has lost some tight games early in the season. Before kickoff in this AAC matchup, continue reading to get my Army vs East Carolina prediction.
Our Army vs East Carolina Pick
- Pick: East Carolina -4.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Army Black Knights vs East Carolina Pirates
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 25, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
- Broadcast: ESPN
Army vs East Carolina Odds
| Market | Army | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 | -4.5 |
| Moneyline | +170 | -200 |
| Total | 53.5 | |
Key Storylines
- Army’s Offensive Adjustments: After a high-scoring overtime loss to North Texas, Army’s offense will look to build on that performance against East Carolina’s defense. Army’s defense has been a problem, though, as they allowed 45 points to the Mean Green last week.
- East Carolina’s Passing Attack: The Pirates boast a potent aerial attack. They are averaging 331 passing yards per game, ranking 12th in the nation. Quarterback Katin Houser will look to exploit Army’s secondary the same way that North Texas did last week.
- Defensive Key Matchups: East Carolina’s defense has been solid, allowing only 15.3 points per game. Army’s ground game will be tested against this stout unit. Army’s defense struggled to get stops against Tarleton State earlier this season and they will need to play better on that side of the ball if they want to beat East Carolina.
Quarterback Play
Army’s Dewayne Coleman has been a dual-threat, combining for 218 total yards and three touchdowns in the loss to North Texas. His ability to make plays with his legs and throw the football when called upon within Army’s option offense will be important for the Black Knights here.
East Carolina’s Katin Houser has thrown for over 1,200 yards through East Carolina’s first four games of this season. He will try his hand at exploiting Army’s defense on Thursday night. But Houser has thrown three interceptions and needs to avoid turning the ball over to accomplish that.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Army is 1-2 against the spread this season.
- East Carolina is 3-1 against the spread this season.
- East Carolina is 8-1 all-time against Army heading into this matchup.
- Army has gone over the total in two of their first three games this season.
- East Carolina has gone under the total in three of their first four games in 2025.
Army vs East Carolina Model Projection
- Score Projection: Army 24 – East Carolina 31
- Win Probability: Army 42%, East Carolina 58%
Final Thoughts
East Carolina’s potent passing attack and solid defense should give them the edge in this matchup. While Army’s dual-threat quarterback Dewayne Coleman poses a challenge, East Carolina’s ability to move the ball through the air should lead them to a victory in front of their home crowd. I recommend betting on East Carolina to cover the spread in a game I see them winning by a touchdown.
