The Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1) will travel to Waco to face the Baylor Bears (2-1) at McLane Stadium on Saturday night. Both teams are 2-1 after their non-conference slate and will look to open Big 12 play with a win in Waco. Before kickoff in the Big 12 opener for these teams, continue reading to get my Arizona State vs Baylor prediction.
Our Arizona State vs Baylor Pick
- Pick: Arizona State +2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- Arizona State’s Ground Game: The Sun Devils have a potent rushing attack, averaging 232.3 yards per game. That number is good for 19th nationally. Running back Raleek Brown has been a standout. He had a 75-yard touchdown run in their recent victory over Texas State and will look to gash the Baylor defense in a similar fashion tonight.
- Baylor’s Passing Offense: Quarterback Bryson Robertson leads a high-powered aerial attack that averages 368 passing yards per game. His performance will be important to Baylor’s success against Arizona State’s defense.
- Defensive Matchup: Arizona State’s defense has shown improvement early in the season, allowing 19.3 points per game. However, they face a significant challenge against Baylor’s explosive offense.
Quarterback Play
- Sam Leavitt (Arizona State): Leavitt has been efficient, throwing for 188 yards and three touchdowns in their win over Texas State. His ability to manage the game and make timely throws will be key. But so far, he has done a nice job of adjusting to life without Cam Skattebo.
- Bryson Robertson (Baylor): Robertson has been impressive, passing for 211 yards and three touchdowns in their recent victory over Samford. He is facing a tougher opponent here and will try to maintain his level of play from last week’s win.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Arizona State: 1-2 against the spread this season.
- Baylor: 1-2 against the spread this season.
- Over/Under: The under has hit in two of Arizona State’s three games this season. The over has hit in two of Baylor’s three games.
- Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Arizona State and Baylor in recent history. Their only previous matchup came in 1990 and Arizona State won it 34-13.
Arizona State vs Baylor Model Projection
- Score Projection: Arizona State 31 – Baylor 30
- Win Probability: Arizona State 52%, Baylor 48%
Final Thoughts
I am anticipating a tight game between Arizona State and Baylor on Saturday night. Both of these teams should be able to move the ball effectively, though they approach their offenses in very different ways. I think that Arizona State will cover the spread and could win this game outright on the road. But the margins will be tight no matter who ends up getting the victory in this Big 12 contest.
