The St. John’s Red Storm (3–2) will face off against the Baylor Bears (4–0) on Tuesday as part of the Players Era Festival. St. John’s is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Iowa State in their first game of this event, while Baylor stayed undefeated on the season with a victory over Creighton. Who will get the win in this matchup on Tuesday? You can find my pick below as I make my St. John’s vs Baylor prediction.
Our St. John’s vs Baylor Pick
Pick: St. John’s -4.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: St. John’s Red Storm vs Baylor Bears
- Date & Time: Tuesday, November 25, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, Nevada
- Broadcast: truTV
Key Storylines
St. John’s is coming off an 83–82 loss to Iowa State, a game in which Oziyah Sellers dropped a season-high 20 points and helped give his team the lead late. That kind of close-game heartbreak could either sap the Red Storm’s morale or serve as motivation on such a quick turnaround. Baylor enters this game on a four-game win streak and the confidence that comes from an unblemished start. Their most recent victory came over Creighton, where multiple Bears reached double figures, showcasing a balanced offensive scheme.
The mix of scoring by Sellers, Bryce Hopkins (16 in the Iowa State game), and Zuby Ejiofor highlights how diversified the St. John’s attack can be. Ejiofor continues to be a force on the boards and defensively, while Mitchell (12 pts, 9 rebounds) showed signs of toughness even in defeat against the Cyclones. Baylor leans heavily on Cameron Carr, who is leading the team in scoring with 23 points per game and carries much of the offensive load.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These two programs last met in November 2024, when Baylor escaped St. John’s with a 99–98 double-overtime win at the Nassau Championship.
- Baylor is 2-2 against the spread so far this season.
- St. John’s is 4-0 against the spread thus far.
- Both teams are 2-2 in the over/under market heading into this matchup.
St. John’s vs Baylor Model Projection
Score Projection: St. John’s 85 – Baylor 79
Win Probability: St. John’s 68%, Baylor 32%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be an interesting test for both of these teams. St. John’s has to prove that it can bounce back on a tight turnaround against a good team. Baylor has to prove itself in its biggest test of the season so far. I’m going to lay the points with St. John’s in this matchup, as they should find a way to control the glass with their rebounding depth.
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