The Round of 32 in this year’s NCAA Tournament includes a game between two teams that put up big offensive numbers in round one, as Saint Louis takes on Michigan on Saturday. Michigan enters as a top seed with national title expectations, while Saint Louis arrives riding the confidence of a dominant opening-round win. Before tip-off in Buffalo on Saturday afternoon, you will find my Saint Louis vs Michigan prediction below.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 21, 2026, 12:10 PM ET
- Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Michigan opened the tournament with a 101-80 win over Howard, marking its ninth 100-point game of the season and reinforcing its elite offensive ceiling.
- Saint Louis crushed Georgia 102-77, showcasing ball movement with 27 assists and balanced scoring across the roster.
- The size disparity looms large in this game, as Michigan’s frontcourt could limit Saint Louis’ interior scoring success.
Key Players
Michigan Wolverines
- Morez Johnson Jr. leads the frontcourt and is coming off a 21-point, 10-rebound performance on perfect shooting in the opener. His efficiency inside makes him a matchup problem.
- Aday Mara adds interior presence with 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks in the last game, anchoring both ends of the floor.
- Roddy Gayle Jr. contributed scoring balance with 14 points in the first round and provides perimeter creation.
Saint Louis Billikens
- Dion Brown leads the offense and scored 18 points on 9-of-10 shooting in the opening round, thriving on high-percentage looks.
- Amari McCottry added 13 points and provided versatility as a scorer and rebounder.
- Brady Dunlap is a key contributor off the bench, helping fuel the team’s depth and scoring runs.
- Kellen Thames rounds out a balanced attack that saw multiple players reach double figures in the first round.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Saint Louis | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 87.7 | 87.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 69.7 | 69.5 |
| Team Field Goal % | 51% | 51% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 40.1 | 39.8 |
| Assists Per Game | 18.6 | 18.7 |
Betting Trends
- Saint Louis is 18-12-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Michigan enters this game at 15-20 against the spread for the year.
- The Billikens are 16-16 in the over/under market this season.
- The under is 21-14 in Michigan’s games this season.
Saint Louis vs Michigan Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Saint Louis 74 – Michigan 88 ATS PRO
- Pick: Michigan -12.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 4 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Saint Louis 28%, Michigan 72% ATS PRO
Michigan’s combination of size, efficiency, and depth presents a difficult hurdle for Saint Louis. While the Billikens excelled in their opener with elite ball movement and interior scoring, replicating that success against a longer and more physical Michigan defense is unlikely. The Wolverines showed they can shift styles mid-game, moving from perimeter shooting to dominant interior play, which adds another layer of difficulty for their opponents. I recommend laying the points with the Wolverines in this matchup from Buffalo.
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