Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are no strangers to seeing one another at major tournaments. In fact, they faced one another at the semifinals of last year’s Australian Open, just as they are going to do this year. In our men’s tennis predictions for the Australian Open semifinals, we look at this massive Tsitsipas vs Medvedev matchup and determine if Medvedev will beat Tsitsipas in Melbourne again, or if the Greek will flip the script on the Russian.
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev
Why Bet On Medvedev:
✅ Medvedev crushed Tsitsipas the last time they played in the Australian Open semifinals, facing just three break points and beating Tsitsipas in straight sets. Medvedev’s hard court defense is just too much for Tsitsipas, or most players for that matter, to break down consistently over the course of a best of five set match.
✅ Tsitsipas has beaten Medvedev just twice in their eight lifetime matches. One of those times came on clay at the French Open, a surface Medvedev wants nothing to do with, and another came at the ATP Finals during a round robin stage where Medvedev went 0-3. Medvedev’s experience beating Tsitsipas, especially on this court, will be a huge boost for him after a tough quarterfinal match.
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✅ While Medvedev played the tougher quarterfinal match, going five sets against Felix Auger-Aliassime, he got stronger as the match went along. While the narrative coming out of that match will be that he is going to be in worse shape than Tsitsipas entering this semifinal, Medvedev should be fine going into this Friday morning affair.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas rolled over young Italian star Jannik Sinner in straight sets to reach the Australian Open semifinals. The serving of Tsitsipas was brilliant, setting up countless serve-plus-one opportunities to collect easy points all match long. Here, easy points will be harder to come by, as Tsitsipas gets set to face one of the best defensive tennis players in the world in Medvedev.
In order for Tsitsipas to take down Medvedev this time around, he will need to play better offensive tennis than he did in last year’s Australian Open semifinals. Tsitsipas hit just 19 winners against Medvedev a year ago in this spot, and allowed Medvedev to win 88% of the Russian’s first serve points. If Tsitsipas cannot find a way to hit through Medvedev, be it through the serve-plus-one or otherwise, he could be rudderless in this matchup.
Daniil Medvedev
It was not pretty, but Daniil Medvedev beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets to advance to the Australian Open semifinals. Medvedev fell behind by two sets to the Canadian, before storming back to take the third set in a tiebreak before winning the final two sets with breaks of serve. Medvedev will be aiming for a match more reminiscent of his semifinal win over Tsitsipas last year than the match he played against Auger-Aliassime on Wednesday morning.
For Medvedev, court positioning when returning serve will be key. He has been content to play from far back in the court, as he is wont to do, against Maxime Cressy and Auger-Aliassime in his last two matches. That has allowed both men to play wide serves to set up easy finishing shots across the court, something that Tsitsipas did well against Sinner, which Medvedev will have to change positions to prevent.