Conor McGregor’s long-awaited return delivered enormous betting interest, but almost none of the competitive drama expected from a UFC main event. His rematch with Max Holloway ended after just 69 seconds, with Holloway awarded a first-round TKO after McGregor suffered a knee injury and could not continue. Months of anticipation were therefore reduced to little more than a minute inside the Octagon.
As a sporting spectacle, it was unquestionably anti-climactic. As a betting event, however, McGregor vs. Holloway was historic.
McGregor vs. Holloway Sets a BetMGM MMA Record
According to BetMGM, UFC 329 became the most-bet MMA event in the sportsbook’s history. It was also the second-most-bet combat sports event BetMGM has ever handled, trailing only the 2024 boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson.
That level of action demonstrates how much commercial appeal McGregor still carries, even after five years away from the UFC. His recent record, inactivity and position as a sizeable underdog did little to discourage bettors from supporting him.
McGregor attracted 88% of the straight-bet tickets and 81% of the money wagered on the main event at BetMGM. Holloway, despite closing as the clear favorite, received only 12% of the bets and 19% of the handle.
The odds told one story, while the betting public told another. Holloway opened at -345 and was priced around -300 before the fight, while McGregor moved from +250 to approximately +240. The market considered Holloway the more likely winner, but most recreational bettors were willing to overlook the price and back McGregor’s comeback.
Bettors Were Buying the McGregor Story
There were understandable reasons to question McGregor’s chances. He had not competed in the UFC since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in July 2021, while Holloway had remained active against high-level opposition. The betting support for McGregor therefore appears to have been driven less by recent form and more by his reputation, knockout power and status as one of the biggest stars in combat sports.
The most popular prop bet across the UFC 329 main card was McGregor to win by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification at +275. It was the outcome many fans presumably wanted to see: the former two-division champion returning after five years and immediately recreating the explosive performances that made him famous.
Instead, bettors received one brief exchange and an injury stoppage.
I’m sure you’ve all seen the sequence by now. McGregor attempted a jumping kick at the beginning of the fight, landed awkwardly and appeared to damage his knee. Although the official stoppage did not come until 1:09 of the opening round, the contest never developed into the rematch that had been promoted. Holloway officially earned the victory, but there was little opportunity for either fighter to prove anything about the matchup itself.
Holloway’s Victory Was a Strong Result for BetMGM
With more than four-fifths of the main-event money placed on McGregor, Holloway’s victory represented a favorable outcome for the sportsbook. BetMGM trading manager Alex Rella described the heavy underdog action on McGregor and confirmed that a Holloway win was a positive result for the book.
The result illustrated a familiar betting dynamic surrounding superstar fighters. Popularity does not always align with probability. McGregor was the emotional selection, while Holloway was the market favorite. The vast difference between the betting percentages suggests many customers were wagering on the comeback narrative rather than assessing whether a 37-year-old fighter returning from a five-year absence offered value at +240.
There was also some evidence that more respected money favored Holloway. Despite the overwhelming number of McGregor bets, the line continued moving toward Holloway before the event, strengthening from approximately -210 during fight week to around -300. That type of movement typically indicates that larger or more influential wagers were supporting the favorite.
Here’s my colleague Jay’s preview of the McGregor vs Holloway fight.
McGregor Remains MMA’s Biggest Betting Attraction
The defining takeaway from UFC 329 may have less to do with the result than with the attention surrounding it. McGregor had been inactive for half a decade, had lost three of his previous four UFC fights and entered as a substantial underdog. He nevertheless helped produce more betting activity than any previous MMA event at BetMGM.
That is remarkable evidence of his continued drawing power. Bettors were not merely wagering on a fight. They were wagering on the possibility of witnessing another classic McGregor moment.
The fact that the comeback ended through injury may even preserve some of that appeal. McGregor was not comprehensively outclassed over several rounds, and the fight provided no clear answer about what would have happened without the knee problem. Holloway has already indicated that he would be open to completing the trilogy once McGregor recovers, although McGregor’s health and fighting future remain uncertain.
UFC 329 ultimately produced an unusual contrast. It was a record-breaking success at the betting window and a major disappointment inside the Octagon. The most-bet MMA event in BetMGM history lasted only 69 seconds, but the betting figures confirmed something the sport has known for years: regardless of form, inactivity or odds, few fighters can generate action like Conor McGregor.
But just as before, one question remains: is this the end for McGregor?
