How to Trade on Polymarket
Updated October 29, 2026
Updated October 29, 2026
Polymarket lets you trade event outcomes by buying and selling Yes or No shares. The basic idea is simple: if a share wins, it settles at $1.00. If it loses, it settles at $0.00. The hard part is not clicking Buy or Sell. The hard part is knowing whether the current price is actually wrong.
This guide explains how to trade on Polymarket step by step, how Yes and No prices work, what to check before entering a position, and why most beginners lose money even when they understand the event they are trading. If you are completely new to the concept, our broader guide to how prediction markets work explains the basic mechanics behind event contracts.
1. Create an account
Sign up and confirm that trading is available in your location.
2. Fund your account
Add supported funds before entering a market. Always check network and deposit details carefully.
3. Choose a market
Pick a market with clear resolution rules, active liquidity, and a price you can evaluate.
4. Buy Yes or No
Buy Yes if you think the outcome is underpriced. Buy No if you think it is overpriced.
5. Sell or hold
You can sell before resolution to lock in profit or cut losses, or hold until the market settles.
The Basics: Trading on Polymarket is relatively simple. You choose an event, select an outcome, purchase contracts, and either sell your position or hold until the event is resolved.
The important part is understanding what you're buying. Prices change constantly, fees can affect your returns, and the price displayed on a market isn't necessarily what you'll pay.
Polymarket is a prediction market where users trade contracts tied to real-world events, including sports, politics, and financial markets.
Most contracts offer two positions:
Winning contracts settle at $1.00, while losing contracts settle at $0.00.
For example, buying 100 Yes contracts at 40¢ costs $40 before fees. If the outcome occurs, those contracts return $100, generating a $60 gross profit.
Unlike traditional betting, you don't necessarily need to wait for the result. You can sell contracts earlier if another trader is willing to buy them.
Polymarket operates two separate platforms.
Polymarket US is designed for eligible American traders. It operates through a CFTC-regulated exchange and supports US dollar funding without requiring a cryptocurrency wallet.
Polymarket International, available through Polymarket.com, uses blockchain infrastructure and cryptocurrency-based trading. It has different account requirements, fees, and geographic restrictions.
The platforms do not share accounts or balances.
For American readers, Polymarket US is the relevant product. However, availability can vary by jurisdiction and contract type.
Read our guide to prediction market legality in the US for more information.
Visit Polymarket US and register using the available signup method.
Complete the required identity verification and confirm that trading is available in your location.
Fund your account using an available payment method, such as a debit card or ACH bank transfer.
Processing times vary, and funds available for trading may not immediately be eligible for withdrawal.
Our Polymarket banking guide explains deposits, withdrawals, and processing times.
Browse the available contracts and select an event you understand.
Before trading, read the resolution rules. These determine exactly what must happen for your position to win.
Pay particular attention to deadlines, official result sources, and exceptions.
Choose Yes if you believe the event will happen or No if you believe it won't.
Contract prices represent approximate implied probabilities. A Yes contract priced at 35¢ suggests the market assigns that outcome roughly a 35% chance.
Remember that the displayed probability may differ from the actual purchase price.
Enter the amount you want to trade and review the transaction.
Check the contract price, quantity, trading fees, potential payout, and maximum loss before confirming.
Depending on the available order controls, you may be able to purchase at the current available price or place a limit order.
A limit order lets you specify the maximum price you're willing to pay. However, it may remain unfilled if nobody accepts your price.
Once executed, your contracts appear in your account.
You can generally sell contracts before resolution, provided sufficient liquidity exists.
Selling allows you to realize profits, limit losses, or free up funds for another position.
Alternatively, you can hold until settlement. Winning contracts pay $1.00 each, while losing contracts become worthless.
Polymarket prices are easiest to understand as implied probabilities.
Contract Price | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
25¢ | Approximately 25% |
50¢ | Approximately 50% |
75¢ | Approximately 75% |
90¢ | Approximately 90% |
These probabilities reflect market pricing, not guaranteed outcomes.
A contract trading at 90¢ can still lose, while one priced at 10¢ can win.
The key is whether the price offers value. An outcome might be highly likely, but that doesn't automatically make it a good purchase.
You can learn more in our guide to how prediction markets work.
Imagine the Boston Bruins are playing the New York Rangers.
You believe Boston has a better chance of winning than the market suggests.
Three outcomes are possible.
Boston wins: Your contracts settle at $1.00 each, returning $100. Your gross profit is $60.
Boston loses: Your contracts settle at $0.00, and you lose the $40 purchase amount.
Boston's price increases: Suppose the available selling price rises to 60¢ before the game. You could sell your 100 contracts for $60, realizing a $20 gross profit without waiting for the result.
All examples exclude trading fees and assume your orders execute at the stated prices.
Trading costs can affect your returns, particularly when entering and exiting positions frequently.
On Polymarket US, fees depend partly on how orders are executed.
Taker orders immediately match existing orders and incur trading fees. Maker orders add liquidity to the order book and may qualify for rebates.
The platform uses a price-dependent fee structure, with taker fees generally highest around 50¢ contracts.
The international platform has a separate fee structure.
Our Polymarket fees guide explains the differences.
Liquidity determines how easily you can buy or sell contracts without significantly affecting their price.
The bid-ask spread is the difference between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are asking.
For example, if the highest bid is 48¢ and the lowest ask is 53¢, buying and immediately selling could cost you 5¢ per contract before fees.
Larger orders may also execute at several prices if insufficient contracts are available at the best quoted price.
Always check the available price and market depth before placing an order.
A good prediction isn't necessarily a good trade. The purchase price matters just as much as the outcome.
Suppose you estimate an NHL team has a 60% chance of winning, but Yes contracts are available at 45¢.
Your estimate is 15 percentage points higher than the price implies.
That difference could represent positive expected value, assuming your probability assessment is accurate.
A simplified calculation is:
Expected Value = Estimated Probability × $1.00 − Purchase Price
In this example:
EV = (0.60 × $1.00) − $0.45 = +$0.15
That's an estimated positive expected value of 15¢ per contract before fees.
Of course, your probability estimate could be wrong. The objective isn't to predict every outcome correctly. It's to identify prices that offer sufficient value relative to the risk.
Most beginner mistakes come down to misunderstanding prices, rules, or risk.
Ignoring the actual purchase price: The displayed probability isn't always the price available when placing an order.
Overlooking fees and liquidity: Trading costs and wide spreads can turn an attractive position into a poor one.
Skipping resolution rules: A contract may settle differently than expected because of specific wording, deadlines, or official result sources.
Buying after major price movements: News can move markets quickly. By the time an outcome appears obvious, the price may already reflect that information.
Trading without a plan: Decide how much you're prepared to lose and whether you intend to hold until resolution or potentially exit earlier.
Before entering any position, make sure you understand the contract, its price, and your maximum potential loss.
Polymarket makes trading real-world events accessible, but successful trading requires more than choosing the right outcome.
Understanding contract prices, resolution rules, fees, and liquidity is essential. You should also know when to sell, when to hold, and when a market simply doesn't offer enough value.
My advice is to start with markets you understand and avoid treating every interesting event as a trading opportunity. Sometimes the best position is no position at all.
For more information about the platform, read our complete Polymarket review or compare the two major US prediction exchanges in our Polymarket vs Kalshi guide.
To trade on Polymarket, choose a market, read the rules, decide whether Yes or No is mispriced, and buy shares at the available price. You can later sell before resolution if there is enough liquidity, or hold until the market settles.
Yes means you are buying the side that pays if the event happens. No means you are buying the side that pays if the event does not happen. Winning shares settle at $1.00, while losing shares settle at $0.00.
A Polymarket price can be read as an implied probability. A share priced at $0.40 suggests the market is implying roughly a 40% chance of that outcome. The price can change as traders react to new information.
Often yes, as long as there is enough liquidity. Selling before resolution can lock in profit, reduce exposure, or cut losses if the market price moves against you.
You have an edge only if you can explain why the market price is wrong. That might come from better data, misunderstood rules, delayed information, or an overreaction to news. A vague feeling that something is likely is not an edge.
Common beginner mistakes include trading opinions instead of prices, ignoring liquidity, entering after a big move, failing to read market rules, and overtrading without a clear edge.
Market rules define how the outcome is resolved. The resolution source, wording, deadline, and edge cases can decide whether a share settles at $1.00 or $0.00. If you do not understand the rules, you should not trade the market.
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