The Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning will take to the ice against one another on Saturday night in Tampa. Washington enters at 7‑6‑1 and are struggling after a hot start. Tampa Bay sits at 7‑5‑2 and appears to be trending in the right direction of late. Before the puck is dropped in Tampa, continue reading to get my Capitals vs Lightning prediction.
Our Capitals vs Lightning Pick
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
The Capitals have been inconsistent of late. They recently fell 5‑3 to the Pittsburgh Penguins and have lost four of their last five games. Their record stands at 7‑6‑1 and they have squandered a hot start to this season. Washington’s power‑play conversion rate sits at 15.2% and their penalty‑kill has struggled at 72.7%.
The Lightning are 7‑5‑2 and have been trending upwards. Tampa has won four of its last five games. Their three-game road trip ended with a win over the Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa will try to build on that result as they return home here.
Goaltending
The Capitals will lean on Logan Thompson in net. Thompson has a 6‑3‑0 record with a 1.45 GAA and .938 save percentage this season. The Lightning have Andrei Vasilevskiy set to start in this game. He is 4‑4‑2 with a 2.70 GAA and .901 SV%.
Key skaters
Forwards Tom Wilson (9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points) and Dylan Strome (4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points) have carried much of the offensive burden for the Capitals. Tampa winger Nikita Kucherov (7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points) remains the driving offensive force for his team.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Tom Wilson (WSH) | Over 0.5 Points |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | Over 1.5 Points |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Washington won the first meeting between these teams by a 3-2 score in overtime.
- Tampa is 5-9 on the puckline so far this season.
- Washington is 8-6 on the puckline this year.
- The Capitals are 7-7 on over/unders so far this season.
- The Lightning have gone over the total in eight of their 14 games.
Capitals vs Lightning Model Projection
Score Projection: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – Washington Capitals 2
Win Probability: Lightning 63%, Capitals 37%
Final Thoughts
These teams are heading in opposite directions of late and I expect that to continue to be the case on Saturday night. I’ll go with the Lightning to win at home to even the season series between these teams at a game apiece, while the Capitals drop their fifth game out of their last six.
