Quick Pick
- Best Bet: Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline -110
- Win Probability: Vegas 54% | Anaheim 46%
- Best Value Angle: Vegas won a tight Game 5 in overtime and now has a chance to close on the road, where they’ve already demonstrated they can impose structure — the market should be pricing this closer to even than it might appear.
Why This Bet Has Value
Game 5 was closer than the Golden Knights might have hoped for but delivered exactly what their bet case needed: a win. Vegas went to overtime tied at 2, then Pavel Dorofeyev solved Lukas Dostal 5:20 into the extra period to give Vegas a 3-2 series lead. The game itself was a tight, grinding affair — 32 VGK shots against 36 for Anaheim, but the Golden Knights converted when it mattered. Dorofeyev scored both Vegas goals, including a power play marker in regulation, and Tomas Hertl added 2 points. The underlying shot numbers show Anaheim pushed the pace as they have all series, but Carter Hart held firm enough in a must-win situation.
The betting edge on Vegas for Game 6 comes down to 3 repeatable factors. First, Vegas has already won on Anaheim’s home ice — their 6-2 blowout in Game 3 showed the Golden Knights can completely neutralize Anaheim’s pace when they play their structure properly. Second, Dorofeyev is scalding hot and the Ducks have no obvious answer for him defensively right now. Third, Dostal’s .874 save percentage across 10 postseason games is genuinely poor — the market may not be fully accounting for how exploitable he is when Vegas gets transition opportunities.
The other game on Thursday night is Montreal vs. Buffalo, with the series tied 2-2.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks
- Date & Time: May 14, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
- Series Score: Vegas leads 3-2
Betting Breakdown
Game 5 was won in overtime, which adds an element of randomness to the result — but the 3-2 VGK lead is no fluke. Vegas has now won 3 of 5 games despite Anaheim controlling shot attempts in 4 of those contests. That gap between process and results has narrowed each game, and in Game 5, Hart was forced to make his stops when Anaheim applied pressure. He did, barely. The real story is that Vegas wins by managing chaos, not by dominating it.
Anaheim’s power play has been the great equalizer. The Ducks went 2 for 4 on the power play in Game 4 — their most lethal performance of the series — and Cutter Gauthier was central to that production. But in Game 5, Anaheim converted just 1 of 2 opportunities, while Vegas scored on 1 of 1. The Golden Knights’ penalty kill remains a real weapon: 24 of 25 for the postseason heading into Game 5. If Anaheim’s power play cools the way it did in Games 1 and 3, Vegas has a massive structural advantage in the game.
Mark Stone being absent is the one genuine problem for Vegas. He brings defensive accountability that no one else on the roster quite replicates. But they’ve already won 3 games without him, so the market should have priced this in by now. The bigger question for Game 6 is whether Dostal can elevate to a performance level he hasn’t shown yet in this series. His .874 postseason save percentage is poor for a team trying to extend their season.
Anaheim’s young core — Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish — has the speed and shot volume to push any team. But in the 2 games Vegas has won on Anaheim ice in this series, they’ve controlled the early score and forced the Ducks to play from behind. That game script completely neutralizes what makes Anaheim dangerous. Vegas will look to establish that template again from the opening puck drop.
Check out our full breakdown of the favorites to win the 2026 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship.
Market & Odds Analysis
Win probability entering Game 6 sits at ANA 49.1% and VGK 50.9% — essentially a coin flip. That reflects legitimate uncertainty, and fair enough: this series has swung back and forth at every turn, with no team winning consecutive games until Games 4 and 5. If the moneyline sits near -110 to -115 for Vegas, that implies a roughly 52% probability — barely above the model estimate, and not much of a gap to exploit.
Where the value might exist is less in the raw moneyline and more in the narrative of the situation. Teams leading 3-2 close out the series in Game 6 roughly 58-62% of the time historically. Vegas also has the demonstrably worse goaltender on the other side — Dostal’s .874 save percentage through 10 games compares unfavorably to Hart’s .908. If the market prices this game as a pure toss-up, that is a mild mispricing that leans toward Vegas. If VGK opens closer to -130 or longer, the value thins considerably and No Bet becomes the right call.
Risk Factors
- Anaheim’s home record in these playoffs has been strong, and their speed on home ice is a genuine edge — they can impose pace in a way that overwhelms Vegas’s defensive structure.
- Carter Hart in overtime or high-leverage situations has been adequate but not dominant; a poor start could swing the game before Vegas settles into their system.
Final Prediction
Vegas is the right lean in Game 6, but not by a wide margin. The experience edge is real, the goaltending edge is real, and closing out a series on the road is something this Golden Knights core has done before. The key number is the moneyline price. At or near -115, there is mild positive value. Much past -130 and you are paying too much for too thin an edge in a series where Anaheim has consistently won the shot attempt battle.
Play Vegas at a reasonable number, keep the position size moderate given Stone’s absence and Anaheim’s pace, and accept that this will be another tight game decided by one goal.
Final Score Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
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