Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Pick – 3/20/2025

The Tampa Bay Lightning are set to face the Dallas Stars on Thursday, March 20, 2025, at 8:00 PM at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. This game features two teams vying for higher positions in their respective divisions, with the Lightning aiming for their third consecutive win and the Stars looking to extend their impressive home winning streak.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars Game Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning (39-23-5, 83 points) are currently second in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 2-0 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday, marking their second consecutive win. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy secured his fifth shutout of the season in that game, stopping all 21 shots he faced.

Offensively, the Lightning are led by Nikita Kucherov, who has amassed 95 points this season, including 29 goals and 66 assists. Jake Guentzel has also been a key contributor with 33 goals. The team's power play is operating at a 25.8% success rate, ranking sixth in the league.

Defensively, Tampa Bay allows an average of 2.6 goals per game, placing them eighth in the NHL. Their penalty kill is effective, neutralizing 82.5% of opponents' power plays.

The Dallas Stars (43-21-3, 89 points) hold the second spot in the Central Division. They recently snapped a two-game losing streak with a 4-3 overtime win against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday. This victory extended their home winning streak to eight games, tying the longest in franchise history.

Matt Duchene leads the Stars with 68 points, comprising 26 goals and 42 assists. Jason Robertson has also been instrumental, contributing 29 goals and 38 assists. The Stars' power play is converting at a 22.6% rate, while their penalty kill is among the league's best at 84.3%.

Defensively, Dallas allows an average of 2.6 goals per game, ranking them sixth in the league. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been solid between the pipes, posting a 2.55 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage.

Betting Insights

As of the latest available information, the betting odds for this matchup are as follows:

• Moneyline: Dallas Stars -130, Tampa Bay Lightning +110
• Over/Under: 5.5 goals

These odds suggest that the Stars are slight favorites, likely due to their strong home performance and current winning streak at the American Airlines Center.

Key betting trends to consider:

• The Stars have won each of their last eight games at home.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last eight games as road underdogs following a win.
• Seven of the Stars' last eight home games have gone over the total goals line.

These trends indicate a strong home advantage for Dallas and a tendency for high-scoring games at the American Airlines Center.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars Prediction

Both teams are performing well, with the Lightning seeking to extend their winning streak and the Stars aiming to continue their dominance at home. The game is expected to be closely contested, given the teams' similar defensive statistics and potent offenses.

Considering the Stars' impressive home record and the Lightning's struggles as road underdogs, the prediction leans towards a Dallas victory. Additionally, the trend of high-scoring games at the American Airlines Center suggests that the total goals may exceed 5.5.

Final Prediction: Dallas Stars win, with the total goals going over 5.5.

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free NHL picks here.