The Ducks are still in the playoffs, but their recent form is troubling. Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators are on the hunt for a Wild Card spot.
Quick Pick
- Best Bet: Nashville Predators ML +125
- Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
- Model Projection: Nashville Predators 3 – Anaheim Ducks 2
- Win Probability: Nashville Predators 59% | Anaheim Ducks 41%
- Best Value Angle: Nashville’s defensive structure and shot suppression create a consistent edge against Anaheim’s low-efficiency offense
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks
- Date & Time: April 7, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Honda Center, Anaheim
- Broadcast: Regional NHL coverage
Key Stats & Recent Form
| Metric | Nashville Predators | Anaheim Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| Season Series | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Last 5 Games | 2-2-1 | 0-4-1 |
| Last 10 Games | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Nashville enters with steadier form and more reliable defensive outputs. Their recent wins have come through controlled pace and limiting high-danger chances rather than relying on scoring bursts.
Nashville has gotten somewhat of a second wind and they are inching closer to the playoffs, but it’s a hornets nest right now, with Preds at 82 pts, Kings at 83, Sharks at 81 and Jets at 80, and of course Utah at 86.
Unfortunately for the Predators, they lost against the Kings last night in a shootout, giving Kings important points in the playoffs chase.
Anaheim’s recent stretch is alarming. Five winless games and they are not on safe grounds with only five games left and 87 points. Meanwhile they have Vegas and Utah breathing down their neck as they are on 86 points. The Ducks are conceding early leads and failing to generate sustained pressure, which is problematic against a structured defensive opponent.
Team Performance & Advanced Metrics
| Metric | Nashville Predators | Anaheim Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Per Game | 2.96, 19th in NHL | 3.23, 13th in NHL |
| Goals Against Per Game | 3.30, 26th in NHL | 3.52, 29th in NHL |
| Shots Per Game | 29.4, 18th in NHL | 27.6, 29th in NHL |
| Shots Against Per Game | 29.1, 12th in NHL | 33.8, 31st in NHL |
| Power Play | 22.8%, 10th in NHL | 18.0%, 24th in NHL |
| Penalty Kill | 81.7%, 8th in NHL | 77.3%, 24th in NHL |
| Schedule Spot | Back to back, travelling | Rested and at home |
The metrics point toward a controlled game script driven by Nashville. Their ability to suppress shots and maintain a positive expected goals share suggests they will dictate pace and limit Anaheim’s offensive ceiling.
Anaheim’s defensive profile is one of the weakest in the league, particularly in shot suppression and penalty killing. Against a team that does not need high scoring volume to win, this becomes a clear mismatch.
Special teams further tilt the balance. Nashville does not need elite efficiency to exploit Anaheim’s penalty kill, which has been a consistent liability.
Market & Odds Analysis Nashville vs. Anaheim
The market prices Nashville as a moderate road favorite, reflecting the defensive gap and Anaheim’s poor form. The implied probability suggests roughly 58% for Nashville, closely aligned with projections but still leaving slight value.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville Predators ML +125 | Anaheim Ducks -148 |
| Total | 5.5 -165 |
| Puckline | Nashville Predators -1.5 +295 |
Key Edges
- Nashville defensive efficiency vs Anaheim low scoring offense
- Shot suppression gap limits Anaheim’s ability to generate chances
- Special teams mismatch favors Nashville in both directions
Risk Factors
- Nashville fatigue on back to back increases defensive risk
- Nashville’s offense can stagnate in low-event games
- Road performance introduces slight volatility
- If Anaheim scores first, game script could tighten significantly
Prediction & Best Bet Nashville vs. Anaheim
- Best Bet: Nashville Predators ML +125
- Score Projection: Nashville Predators 3 – Anaheim Ducks 2
- Win Probability: Nashville Predators 59% | Anaheim Ducks 41%
- Edge: Moderate
The market sees the Predators as underdogs, which gives us value.
The Ducks form is weak, much because of injuries on Gauthier and Gudas, two important pieces both offensively and defensively. Cutter Gauthier picked up his injury on March 30 and Radko Gudas picked up an injury just a day later. Young D-man Pavel Mintyukov has been out of action but could be making his return in this game.
The situational spot with Nashville on a back to back is a risk to consider. It should also be noted that the Predators has been on the road for the past four games. Nashville does not need offensive dominance to win this game, only control, which aligns perfectly with their strengths.
Because of the form and the big pieces missing for Anaheim, I’m backing the Preds as there’s a lot of value on the market underdog.
Final Score Prediction: Nashville Predators 3 – Anaheim Ducks 2
With the NHL closing off it’s regular season in a matter of days, we are ramping up the NHL picks here at ats.io.
