Colorado is dealing with its first real wobble of the postseason. A 5-1 Game 3 loss, combined with Scott Wedgewood getting pulled, leaves Jared Bednar with a tough call in net. Does he go back to Wedgewood in Game 4, or hand the crease to Mackenzie Blackwood, who has yet to start in these playoffs?
Quick pick
- Best bet Colorado Avalanche ML -128
- Win probability Colorado 54% | Minnesota 46%
- Best value angle: Game 3 was a near-perfect storm for Minnesota that is unlikely to repeat; the market has overreacted, leaving the Avs at accessible chalk rather than inflated favoritism.
Why this bet has value
Game 3 produced a scoreline that looks more damning than the underlying evidence warrants. Colorado fired 36 shots — more than Minnesota’s 26 — yet finished with a 2.8% shooting percentage at 5-on-5. That number is a red flag, not a trend. Wedgewood was genuinely poor early, but once Mackenzie Blackwood entered, he stopped 12 of 13 and controlled the final 32+ minutes. The 5-1 result flattered the Wild significantly.
The market has shifted Minnesota to +108 and Colorado to -128, a sharp compression from the -130 Colorado enjoyed heading into Game 3. That move is understandable from a public-narrative standpoint but likely an overcorrection. Colorado still leads 2-1, holds structural advantages in shot volume, dominated both home games by comfortable margins, and remains the superior team across a 9-game unbeaten run entering this series. One bad goaltender performance and a .028 shooting night should not erase that body of evidence.
The edge here is modest — this is not a situation demanding heavy action — but -128 on a team that outshot Minnesota 36-26 in Game 3 and still leads the series represents legitimate value against a market that overweights the last result.
Game snapshot
- Matchup COL at MIN — Game 4
- Date & time Mon, May 11 — 8:00 PM ET
- Venue Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
- Series score Colorado leads 2-1
- Series context 2nd Round, West Semis
Read our other NHL predictions for the Stanley Cup Playoffs
Matchup breakdown
Key storylines
The central question tonight is whether Jared Bednar sticks with Wedgewood or turns to Blackwood. Bednar said postgame he would have “a decision to make,” which is about as explicit as an NHL coach gets. That goaltending variable is the single most significant uncertainty hanging over this game. On the Minnesota side, forward Joel Eriksson Ek — who posted 5 points in 6 first-round games before being injured — is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury and hopes to return tonight. His presence would meaningfully alter Minnesota’s depth at center.
What happened in Game 3
Minnesota won 5-1, but the shot count tells a different story. Colorado generated 36 shots and 23 missed attempts. The Wild’s 3 even-strength goals came through specific circumstances: a 4-on-4 sequence that Kaprizov finished after making Wedgewood over-commit; a 4-on-3 power play score from Quinn Hughes; and a deflection off Devon Toews that was redirected past Wedgewood early in the second period. That third goal prompted the hook. Once Blackwood entered, Colorado controlled the remainder of the game volume-wise while facing a Wild team with a 3-goal cushion playing a structured defensive game. Colorado’s 0% even-strength shooting on 20 shots at 5-on-5 is not a sustainable data point — it was a cold night, not a structural deficiency.
Minnesota’s power play went 2-for-3 and was the actual difference-maker. Kaprizov finished with 3 points and was genuinely excellent, but 2 of Minnesota’s 5 goals came on special teams, meaning even-strength they scored 3 on 20 shots — a number that benefits significantly from the Toews deflection.
What changed
Colorado faces a real goaltending decision. Wedgewood enters Game 4 with a 6-1 record, 2.45 GAA, and .911 save percentage for the postseason — excellent numbers. One poor start does not erase that track record. If Bednar chooses Blackwood, it signals a genuine loss of confidence and introduces its own uncertainty, as Blackwood has never started a playoff game this postseason. Either way, the goaltending picture is less settled tonight than it was 48 hours ago. That is a legitimate risk factor, not a reason to abandon Colorado entirely.
Wallstedt is confirmed back in net for Minnesota after his 35-save performance in Game 3. He was benched for Game 2 after allowing 8 goals in the opener, so his return represents a bounce-back rather than an established trend.
Goaltending
Wallstedt gets the nod for Minnesota and brings genuine momentum — 35 saves on 36 shots in Game 3 is a legitimate performance, not noise. However, his series numbers remain inflated by the 8-goal disaster in Game 1. Bednar’s goalie for Colorado is uncertain as of game time. If Wedgewood starts, the question is whether one bad outing affects his reads and confidence. If it is Blackwood, the question is cold starts — he stopped 12 of 13 in relief, but stepping in at the beginning of a game carries different pressure.
Key skaters
- Kirill Kaprizov — 3 points in Game 3, clearly Minnesota’s engine. His 4-on-4 goal was a skill play that required specific conditions. He remains the most dangerous player on the ice.
- Nathan MacKinnon — Held without a point at 5-on-5 in Game 3 but scored on the power play. His season-long postseason production has been elite; one quiet game does not shift the narrative.
- Brock Faber — 9 points in 9 playoff games. He has been Minnesota’s most consistent blueliner and drove much of the defensive structure that kept Colorado’s shot quality manageable despite the high volume.
- Cale Makar — Was a minus-2 in Game 3 with 4 shots. No particular concern, but worth monitoring if Minnesota’s game plan succeeds in limiting his transition entries.
- Joel Eriksson Ek — Day-to-day. If he plays, Minnesota’s penalty kill and defensive-zone coverage improve meaningfully.
Team performance and metrics
| Metric | Colorado | Minnesota | Betting impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 3 shots | 36 | 26 | Edge: Colorado |
| Game 3 5-on-5 shooting % | 0% on 20 shots | 15% on 20 shots | Noise — unsustainable variance |
| Special teams Game 3 | 1-for-3 PP | 2-for-3 PP | Edge: Minnesota |
| Series chance quality | Dominated Games 1-2; off in Game 3 | Surged in Game 3 | Unclear — single-game sample |
| Goaltending | Uncertain — decision pending | Wallstedt confirmed, in form | Edge: Minnesota |
| Home record MIN as underdog | — | 8-1 at home as dog | Structural risk for Colorado bettors |
| Series control | 2-1 lead, home ice retained | Desperate, playing at home | Colorado holds structural edge |
The expected game script is a tighter, lower-volume contest than Game 1 or Game 2. Minnesota will deploy the same physical, shot-suppressing approach that worked in Game 3. Colorado needs a competitive start from its goaltender and better 5-on-5 finishing — its shot generation was not the problem last game. A close game decided by one special teams sequence is the most likely scenario.
Market and odds analysis
- Moneyline — Colorado -128
- Moneyline — Minnesota +108
- Total 6.5 O +125 | U -148
Minnesota at +108 implies roughly 48% probability. Colorado at -128 implies about 56%. The sports-data model has Colorado at 54.2%, which is well within the implied probability range — meaning no meaningful model-vs-market gap exists on the moneyline. The slight value case for Colorado is qualitative: the market moved sharply toward Minnesota after Game 3, and sharp money tends to fade that kind of single-game public overreaction when an elite team still leads the series.
The total sitting at 6.5 reflects both teams’ offensive capability. Colorado averaged 7 goals per game in the first 2 games of this series. Game 3 produced 6. The under at 6.5 carries some appeal given the expected tighter structure on the road for Colorado, but the Avs’ shot volume and Minnesota’s inconsistent goaltending across the series make the over a reasonable bet on any given night. This market is genuinely efficient — no strong lean recommended.
Key edges
- Colorado’s 0% even-strength shooting in Game 3 on 20 shots is statistical variance, not a structural change — regression toward the mean favors the Avs scoring more tonight.
- The market overreacted to a single blowout result; -128 on the series leader who outshot the opponent 36-26 in the loss represents modest but real value.
- Minnesota’s home underdog record is a legitimate structural factor that cuts the other way and compresses the edge.
Risk factors
- Colorado’s goaltending decision is unknown — a cold Blackwood or a shaken Wedgewood reintroduces the instability that defined Game 3.
- Minnesota’s home underdog record (8-1) is one of the strongest trend signals in this series and is directly relevant tonight.
- Playoff hockey at this stage is inherently high-variance; a single special teams sequence can decide the game.
- Eriksson Ek’s potential return would meaningfully boost Minnesota’s depth and penalty kill.
Prediction and verdict
- Best bet: Colorado Avalanche ML -128
- Score projection: Colorado 4, Minnesota 3
- Win probability: Colorado 54% | Minnesota 46%
- Edge: Small
This is not a high-conviction spot. The goaltending uncertainty alone is enough to temper enthusiasm. But the evidence supports Colorado as a mild favorite with a real edge: they outplayed Minnesota in shot generation during a game they lost 5-1, the 5-on-5 shooting variance is extreme and unsustainable, and -128 reflects a market that has moved toward Minnesota more than the underlying series data justifies. Back the Avalanche to bounce back and take a commanding 3-1 lead, but size accordingly — this is a single-unit play at most.
Final score prediction: Colorado Avalanche 4, Minnesota Wild 3
