The Washington Commanders will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 of the NFL season on Sunday. Washington comes into this game at 2-1 and seeking its first road win of the 2025 season. Atlanta is 1-2 and looking for its first win on its home turf this year. Before the action begins in the ATL, continue reading to get my thoughts in this game, including my Commanders vs Falcons prediction.
Our Commanders vs Falcons Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: CBS
Commanders vs Falcons Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders −2.5 | Commanders −145 / Falcons +125 | 44.5 |
Key Storylines
- Quarterback uncertainty in Washington: Jayden Daniels is battling a knee sprain and his availability for Week 4 is unclear. Marcus Mariota stepped in for Daniels in Week 3 and delivered a strong performance in a 41-24 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. But the Commanders would prefer to have Daniels on the field for this game.
- Falcons offense in freefall: Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. was benched during Week 3. Veteran Kirk Cousins came in and couldn’t generate any offense either, as the Falcons lost 30-0 to the Carolina Panthers. Bijan Robinson is clearly the best offensive weapon for the Falcons. But the lack of a competent passing game around Robinson has limited his productivity out of the backfield.
- Washington’s special teams edge: The Commanders not only dominated on the ground against Las Vegas. They also had explosive special teams plays, including a 90-yard punt return TD by rookie Jaylin Lane.
Quarterback Play
Both teams are dealing with quarterback issues heading into Week 4. Daniels is banged up for the Commanders and that could mean Mariota starting on the road against his former team. Atlanta’s quarterback situation isn’t much better. Penix Jr.’s turnovers and benching are not a good sign and Cousins being his only potential replacement does not inspire confidence whatsoever.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Washington is 2-1 against the spread to start the season.
- Atlanta is 1-2 against the spread to begin the year.
- The Falcons have gone under the total in three straight games to start their 2025 campaign.
- The Commanders have gone under the total in two of their first three games.
Commanders vs Falcons Model Projection
| Score Projection | Washington Commanders 21 – Atlanta Falcons 23 |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | Washington 45% — Atlanta 55% |
Final Thoughts
I don’t feel particularly confident in either of these teams getting the job done in this spot. Both teams are a mess at the most important position on the field and that should mean some pretty ugly football from both teams. As far as the outcome of this game goes, I will lean toward the home team getting the job done. The Falcons’ offense has struggled early on but they should be able to take advantage of Daniels being banged up here. It won’t be pretty, but I’ll take the Falcons to get back to .500 with a win at home.
