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A fun and interesting way to bet on the NFL is through Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) sites such as Underdog Fantasy. With these sites, bettors can wager on player props and turn smaller wagers into big winnings. Here, we give you our Underdog Fantasy NFL picks this week and each week throughout the NFL season.
Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks For Week 11
- Jake Bates 8.5 Kicking Points (Lions vs Jaguars): Lower
- Gardner Minshew 202.5 Passing Yards (Raiders vs Dolphins): Higher
- 3x Entry: $100 to win $300
This weekend in the NFL, our Underdog Fantasy NFL pick ’em ticket consists of two props, taking one over and one under. First, we will go with Jake Bates of the Detroit Lions to stay under 8.5 kicking points against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as we expect the Lions to finish plenty of drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. Then, we will go with Gardner Minshew to go over his passing yardage total against the Miami Dolphins, as the Raiders should be playing catchup for most of their game against Miami.
Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks Every Week
Every week throughout the NFL season, our NFL betting experts will go through the board of pick ‘em options at DFS sites like Underdog Fantasy. We will then assemble our Underdog Fantasy tickets using those picks, which you can use to build your own tickets and hopefully win along with us. Be sure to bookmark this page, as it will be updated weekly with our picks, featuring props from some of the biggest names in the NFL.
How Does Underdog Fantasy NFL Work?
Underdog Fantasy pick ‘em allows players to select from a huge menu of over/unders pertaining to individual player performances in each game on the NFL schedule. Players must select at least two over/unders (referred to on the site as higher/lowers for legal reasons) in order to enter a pick ‘em. This is essentially just parlaying two or more player props, but it falls into the “game of skill” designation that DFS operators fall into, keeping its legal status.
Once a player has entered their pick ‘em selections, they need all of those picks to win in order for their entry to be graded a winner. If even one selection fails to hit, the entire pick ‘em entry is graded a loser, just like a parlay wager.
Is Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em A Good Value?
To answer whether Underdog Fantasy NFL pick ‘em is a good value, there is some basic math involved. Answering this question means comparing the prospective payouts for each level of Underdog Fantasy pick ‘em to the potential payouts for parlays at a sportsbook, along with the true odds of the outcomes for each. For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume that the higher/lower options at Underdog Fantasy are set at the same -110 odds as our parlay at a traditional sportsbook.
| # of Parlay Legs at -110 | Underdog Fantasy Payout | DraftKings Sportsbook Payout | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +200 | +264 | +300 |
| 3 | +500 | +595 | +700 |
| 4 | +900 | +1228 | +1500 |
| 5 | +1900 | +2435 | +3100 |
As you can see, you are getting closer to true odds on pick ‘em selections for two-leg pick ‘em entries at Underdog Fantasy. After that, though, you are getting subpar value relative to the true odds that get progressively worse as you add more legs. But if you stick with two-leg pick ‘em entries, you are in better shape.
It is also worth considering that some of the options at Underdog Fantasy would come in at shorter odds than the -110 that we reference above. For example, betting on specific NFL players to score a touchdown in a game would be at much shorter odds at a traditional sportsbook, which could deliver better value in pick ‘ems at Underdog.
Underdog Fantasy NFL Strategies
Just like with NFL parlays, there are ways to get a leg up on the house when making Underdog Fantasy NFL pick ‘em entries. Below are some of the strategies that our NFL handicapping experts use when they create their entries at Underdog and other DFS sites.
Stick To Two-Leg Plays
First, it is very important to stick to two-leg pick ‘em entries when playing at Underdog Fantasy. As we outlined above, it is way more likely that you are getting value (or at least near the true odds) on the entries you are creating when you limit them to two legs. Anything more than that, and the math gets way more difficult for you to win over the long run on this site and the others like it.
Hunt For Value
After you make sure that you are staying with two-leg pick ‘em entries at Underdog Fantasy, the next thing you should do is dig into all of the options available to find the best ones from a value perspective. There are several ways to do this, and several angles that players can take to derive value from the higher/lower options on the board. No matter which way you do this, it starts with doing the research to find options that have the best chance to win.
Don’t Be Afraid Of Unders
As is the case with over/under betting at traditional sportsbooks, choosing the higher option on Underdog Fantasy props is incredibly popular. There are plenty of times that the higher option is warranted, and we will utilize them often when making our Underdog Fantasy NFL picks. But players should be willing to choose unders at times as well, as not every prop is going to go over in every game.
More Than Just Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks
Along with our Underdog Fantasy NFL picks, we offer many other forms of NFL predictions here at ATS. Click on the links below to get our latest and greatest NFL selections, from traditional betting markets, to props and parlays throughout each week of the season.
