Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
Najee Harris projections and prop bets for Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens on Jan 11, 2025
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.6% run rate.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
In this week's game, Najee Harris is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.6 carries.
With a terrific record of 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (85th percentile), Najee Harris places among the best pure runners in the NFL this year.
At a -10-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Opposing teams have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 79.0 per game) vs. the Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Najee Harris is projected to have 55.6 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.6% run rate.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
In this week's game, Najee Harris is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.6 carries.
Najee Harris has garnered 51.1% of his team's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs.
At a -10-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Baltimore defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Najee Harris is projected to have 13.2 Carries in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
At a -10-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
The model projects Najee Harris to notch 2.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (57.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Steelers.
In regards to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the lowly 8th percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -4.0 per game.
Najee Harris's 77.3% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a meaningful regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.7% figure.
The Ravens pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.5%) to RBs this year (79.5%).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Najee Harris is projected to have 15.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
At a -10-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
The model projects Najee Harris to notch 2.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (57.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Steelers.
Najee Harris's 77.3% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a meaningful regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.7% figure.
The Ravens pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.5%) to RBs this year (79.5%).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Najee Harris is projected to have 2 Receptions in this weeks game.
