Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Marquez Valdes-Scantling projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints on Dec 15, 2024
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this contest (18.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (55.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling rates as one of the weakest wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a measly 1.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 20th percentile among WRs.
With a lackluster 52.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (23rd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among wideouts.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is projected to have 3.1 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this contest (18.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (55.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
With a lackluster 52.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (23rd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among wideouts.
This year, the imposing Commanders pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a feeble 3.4 YAC.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is projected to have 43.6 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
