Josh Downs projections and prop bets for Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts on Nov 24, 2024
Josh Downs Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 4.5 over: -135
- Receptions 4.5 under: 105
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see 131.4 total plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Josh Downs's 5.6 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a meaningful gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 4.0 mark.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (just 54.3 per game on average).
The Lions pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) versus WRs this year (62.4%).
The Lions safeties project as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection For Josh Downs Receptions Prop Bet
Josh Downs is projected to have 4.7 Receptions in this weeks game.
Josh Downs Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 58.5 over: -115
- Receiving Yards 58.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see 131.4 total plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Josh Downs has accumulated a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (just 54.3 per game on average).
The Lions pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. WRs this year, conceding 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.
The Lions safeties project as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection For Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Josh Downs is projected to have 57.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
