Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Josh Downs projections and prop bets for Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos on Dec 15, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The model projects Josh Downs to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Josh Downs has totaled many more adjusted receiving yards per game (58.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 49.4% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The 2nd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Colts this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Broncos pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.71 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
The Broncos cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Josh Downs is projected to have 46.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The model projects Josh Downs to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Josh Downs's 5.3 adjusted catches per game this year marks a substantial gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 4.0 rate.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 49.4% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The 2nd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Colts this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Broncos cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Josh Downs is projected to have 4.1 Receptions in this weeks game.
