The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will collide on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3 of the NFL season. Buffalo is 2-0 to start the season and looks like a championship contender early in the year. Miami has dropped its first two games and will look to get into the win column for the first time this year. Here, I take a look at this Week 3 matchup in the NFL and bring you my Dolphins vs Bills prediction.
Our Dolphins vs Bills Pick
- Pick: Buffalo -12.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
- The Bills are 2-0 to open the season. They earned a comeback win at home in Week 1 over the Baltimore Ravens before they won convincingly on the road against the New York Jets in Week 2. Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate once again early in the year.
- The Dolphins’ offense sputtered in a 33-8 loss at Indianapolis in Week 1. The Dolphins followed that up with a loss in their home opener against the New England Patriots. Miami’s defense once again gave up 33 points and is a huge concern for the team.
- Both teams are on four days’ rest. That short rest period often benefits the home team.
Quarterback Play
Josh Allen, Bills: Josh Allen is off to a great start to his 2025 season. Allen has thrown for 394 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He will look to operate efficiently in this game as well to help the Bills get to 3-0 on the year.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa is struggling mightily for the Dolphins early in the year. Miami’s signal caller has 114 passing yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions through two weeks. He has yet to look like the quarterback he was before last year’s injury-plagued season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Bills have won each of their last five games against the Dolphins.
- Buffalo is 2-0 against the spread to start the year.
- Miami is 0-2 against the spread to open the season.
- Both teams are 1-1 in the over/under market going into Week 3.
Dolphins vs Bills Model Projection
Score Projection: Dolphins 17 – Bills 31
Win Probability: Dolphins 27% – Bills 73%
Final Thoughts
Miami’s defense does not inspire confidence for me going into this matchup with the Bills in Orchard Park. The Bills are averaging 35.5 points per game through the first two weeks of the season. Expect Josh Allen to move the ball effectively throughout this game and for Tagovailoa’s struggles to continue in this AFC East rivalry game. I recommend laying the points with Buffalo at home. They will move to 3-0 and keep themselves ahead of their competition for the top seed in the AFC early on.
