The Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins will do battle in Week 6 of the NFL season on Sunday. The Chargers will aim to rebound from a disappointing home loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 5. They will face the Dolphins, who are struggling with a 1-4 record following a loss to the Carolina Panthers. One of these teams will get back into the win column, but who will it be? Continue reading to get my Chargers vs Dolphins prediction for this week.
Our Chargers vs Dolphins Pick
- Pick: Dolphins +5.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 12, 2025, at 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: CBS
Chargers vs Dolphins Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers -5.5 |
| Moneyline | Chargers -250, Dolphins +210 |
| Total | 44.5 |
Key Storylines
Quarterback Play
Justin Herbert leads the Chargers offense and will need to perform at a high level to secure a win. Herbert had his worst game of the season against the Commanders in Week 5, throwing for just 166 yards. Tua Tagovailoa has 10 touchdown passes and four interceptions this season for the Dolphins. He is coming off his best game of the year, with three touchdowns and no picks against the Carolina Panthers.
Running Back Situation
The Chargers face uncertainty in their backfield with rookie Omarion Hampton’s injury. The team’s ability to establish a running game will be important, especially against a Dolphins defense that has struggled to stop the run. Miami uses its short passing game to De’Von Achane regularly in addition to handing off to Achane on thr ground.
Dolphins’ Defensive Challenges
Miami’s defense has been porous, particularly against the run. They were torched by Rico Dowdle on the ground against Carolina and will have to be better against the run to win this week. The Chargers will look to capitalize on this weakness by establishing a strong ground game. The Chargers also struggled on defense against the Commanders and will try to patch things up here.
Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 2-2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 2-3 against the spread after the first five weeks of the year.
- Four of the Chargers’ first five games have stayed under their totals.
- The Dolphins have gone over the total in four of their first five contests.
Chargers vs Dolphins Model Projection
Score Projection: Chargers 27 – Dolphins 24
Win Probability: Chargers 69%, Dolphins 31%
Final Thoughts
The Chargers should be able to win on the road in Miami against a Dolphins team that continues to have things go any way but theirs this season. Still, I think that taking the points with the Dolphins is the right play from a betting standpoint. Miami can still move the ball through the air without Tyreek Hill, as they showed in Carolina in Week 5. They will do enough to keep this game within a field goal or so in South Florida.
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