The Las Vegas Raiders will travel to Gillette Stadium to open the 2025 regular season against the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Raiders go into Week 1 with a new starting quarterback and the Patriots are going into another year of trying to make Drake Maye happen as their starter. Before the action begins in New England, continue reading to get my Raiders vs Patriots prediction for Week 1.
Our Raiders vs Patriots Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: CBS
Raiders vs Patriots Odds
| Odds Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots -2.5 |
| Moneyline | Patriots -155 | Raiders +130 |
| Total | 43.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Raiders will start Geno Smith under center while Las Vegas added Kenny Pickett for depth after Aidan O’Connell suffered a wrist injury in the preseason. The Patriots are starting Drake Maye after an up-and-down rookie campaign a season ago.
- This is the first game in the pro career of Ashton Jeanty. The highly-touted running back out of Boise State will look to make the Raiders more balanced offensively while racking up big numbers in his first season in the pros.
- New England’s coaching staff has underdong major changes. Mike Vrabel has taken over as head coach after spending time as a Super Bowl winning player with the Patriots. Vrabel has had success coaching elsewhere and will look to bring that success to his new team. Pete Carroll has taken over as the head man in Las Vegas. That should mean a run-heavy approach with Jeanty as the featured back.
Quarterback Play
Geno Smith is the new veteran starter for Las Vegas and gives the Raiders a steady hand. Smith was productive in Seattle over the last few years but wasn’t consistent with his level of performance. Still, I think he is an upgrade over anything the Raiders have had in the recent past.
Drake Maye is in his second year under center for the Patriots after a disappointing rookie season. The team brought in Stefon Diggs to make life easier on Maye this year. But there are questions about how much Diggs has left in the tank and whether he can be a big help for Maye at this stage of his career.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Under 214.5 Passing Yards |
| Geno Smith | Under 227.5 Passing Yards |
| Ashton Jeanty | Over 71.5 Rushing Yards |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Under 40.5 Rushing Yards |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Raiders have won the last two games between these teams in 2022 and 2023. Each roster looks much different than it did then and that history shouldn’t have much of an impact on this contest.
- The Patriots went 7-9-1 against the spread last season.
- Las Vegas was also 7-9-1 against the spread in 2024.
Raiders vs Patriots Model Projection
- Score Projection: New England Patriots 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 20
- Win Probability: New England Patriots 52%, Las Vegas Raiders 48%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a close game here. The actual winner could go either way as far as I’m concerned. But I do think that taking the points with the Raiders is the right move in this situation. The experience of Geno Smith should help him to keep things highly competitive against a Patriots team whose offense could still struggle this year depending on how Stefon Diggs is holding up physically.
