AFC West rivals will battle in Brazil to start their 2025 NFL seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers meet in São Paulo. The Chiefs have dominated the head-to-head series between these two teams. Kansas City will look to continue that trend while avoiding the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. Before this matchup begins in South America, continue reading to get my thoughts and to get my Chiefs vs Chargers prediction for Week 1.
Our Chiefs vs Chargers Pick
- Pick: Under 45.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Date & Time: Friday, September 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Corinthians Arena, São Paulo, Brazil
- Broadcast: YouTube
Chiefs vs Chargers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs -3 | Chiefs -170 / Chargers +142 | 45.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Chiefs lost in the Super Bowl last season. That has typically not meant good things for teams the following season. But the Chiefs have overcome losing in the Super Bowl once before in the Mahomes era and will look to do it again.
- This game is being played at a neutral site and that takes away the typical home-field advantage (or disadvantage in the case of the Chargers) that normally comes with this rivalry game.
- Kansas City enters with a healthy core led by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. But they will be without the suspended Rashee Rice and that could have a negative impact on their offense.
- The Chargers’ defense added pieces in the offseason and aims to be tougher against the pass. That will be critical against Mahomes and the Chiefs to open the season.
- Weather is not a factor in an enclosed stadium but the unusual location and travel could create some out-of-the-ordinary play here.
Quarterback Play
Patrick Mahomes is still a great quarterback but the Chiefs’ offensive production lagged a bit last year. He doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons as he did earlier in his career and the Chiefs’ receiving corps looks pretty bleak with Rice suspended. A slimmed-down Travis Kelce will need to step up despite rumors that this could be his last season.
Justin Herbert is QB1 once again for the Los Angeles Chargers and this is a big season for him. Herbert has a reputation for being a great quarterback on paper but not one who delivers in the biggest games for his team. He has a chance to shake that label early in the season against a Chiefs team that has been a fixture in the Super Bowl in recent years.
Best Player Props
| Prop | Pick |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards | Under 242.5 |
| Justin Herbert Passing Yards | Under 226.5 |
| Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer | Yes |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Kansas City has dominated the head-to-head series recently. They have won the last seven meetings against the Chargers.
- The Chargers were one of the best teams against the spread last season. They went 12-6 ATS.
- Kansas City went 9-11 against the spread a season ago.
Chiefs vs Chargers Model Projection
- Score Projection: Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 21
- Win Probability: Kansas City 56.2%, Los Angeles 43.4%
Final Thoughts
This is a tough game to call from a betting standpoint. I don’t think the Chiefs’ offense is going to be all that special again this year, but their defense is going to be excellent. The Chargers should also improve on defense but I don’t know how much I trust Herbert in games that matter. The under seems like the best play in this game for me, while we gather information on how both of these teams will play in 2025.
