Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Pick For 9/29/2024

Chiefs vs Chargers Betting Odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview

Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) will battle the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1). Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 77%, leaving the Chargers with a 23% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chiefs -8.0 with a Game Total of 39.5.

Kansas City's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #8 in the league with 341 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #5-best in football with 261 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #6 in the league in pass protection. This represents a particular advantage for Kansas City given that the Chargers have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 8.01 yards per target (#7-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Chiefs have ranked #4 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 197 yards per game through the air against them (#28 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.54 yards per carry. Kansas City has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.28 yards per target (#4-best). Kansas City has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 88.8% completion rate (#2-highest).

Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 358 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #6 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #3-most yards per game (246) against the Chargers. Opposing tight ends have given the Chargers the most trouble, completing 78.9% of their targets (the #3-highest rate in football). Los Angeles's defensive tackles are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #5-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 235 yards per game (#15 in football). Their run game has ranked #4 with 5.2 yards per attempt on the ground.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs 27.04 vs Los Angeles Chargers 22.43

NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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