Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction – 9/14/2025
The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts will face off at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon. These two teams both won their first games of the season and will look for an early statement win to move to 2-0 here. These teams both had success on defense in their season openers and that side of the ball will be the key to this contest as well. Here, I tell you which defense I think will win the day as I give you my Broncos vs Colts prediction.
Our Broncos vs Colts Pick
- Pick: Under 43.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts
- Date & Time: Sunday, Sep 14, 2025, 4:05 PM ET
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, IN
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Daniel Jones led the Colts to a 33-8 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. Jones led the Colts to points in every possession in which he touched the ball against Miami. He will likely not be that effective against the Broncos’ defense, but he will try to be.
- The Denver Broncos’ defense was the star in their 20-12 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 1. Denver held the Titans’ number one draft pick Cam Ward to just 112 yards and will try to force Jones into a similarly poor performance.
- Bo Nix was not convincing in the first game of his sophomore season in the NFL. Nix struggled and did not live up to the hype surrounding him going into this year. Fortunately for Nix, he has plenty of time to turn things around and a defense good enough to make up for any game where he struggles.
Quarterback Play
Bo Nix was decisive and efficient as a rookie with 3,775 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. He struggled in Week 1 with 176 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against Tennessee. That performance was good enough to beat Cam Ward in his first career start in the NFL. But it might not be enough to win on the road against a team with a more experienced quarterback.
Daniel Jones completed 22 of his 29 pass attempts for 272 yards and a touchdown. Jones wasn’t great but he kept things moving and didn’t actively ruin the game for Indianapolis like he did for the New York Giants so many times. As long as Jones can avoid those costly turnovers, Indianapolis could exceed expectations.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Denver is 0-1 against the spread despite beating the Titans in Week 1.
- Indianapolis cover the spread at home in their season opener.
- Both teams had their Week 1 games stay under their totals.
Broncos vs Colts Model Projection
Score Projection: Broncos 21 – Colts 20
Win Probability: Broncos 58%, Colts 42%
Final Thoughts
My model suggests that this is going to be a very close game in Indianapolis. Both defenses looked very good in Week 1 and should have success here as well. I think that the best bet for this contest is the under. The actual winner of the game could go either way. I think Denver wins a tight game and that these teams combine to fall short of the 43.5-point total.
