The Cleveland Browns (1-4) will face the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) in an AFC North matchup at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday. The Browns fell short against the Minnesota Vikings in London in their last game despite a promising first start from Dillon Gabriel. They will have to overcome a rough travel schedule against a Steelers team coming off its bye week. Before these teams take the field in Pittsburgh, you can find my Browns vs Steelers prediction below.
Our Browns vs Steelers Pick
- Pick: Steelers -4.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 12, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: CBS
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | -4.5 | -230 | Over 38.5 |
| Browns | +4.5 | +195 | Under 38.5 |
Key Storylines
- Browns’ Rookie Dillon Gabriel: Gabriel’s NFL debut was promising for the Browns. He threw for 190 yards and two touchdowns and kept the Browns in the game against the Minnesota Vikings. His inexperience may hurt him on the road against the Steelers’ defense this week.
- Steelers’ Defensive Strength: Pittsburgh’s defense has been formidable, allowing 21 or fewer points in back-to-back games. And with the return of key players post-bye week, they are expected to apply significant pressure on Gabriel.
- Injury Updates: The Steelers are expected to have running back Jaylen Warren back in action, adding depth to their offense.
- Rest Advantage: The Steelers are coming off their bye week, while the Browns played in England this past Sunday. The combination of less rest and traveling back from abroad could be a dangerous one for Cleveland.
Quarterback Play
Dillon Gabriel’s performance against the Vikings was not bad. But facing the Steelers’ aggressive defense in a true road environment will present a different challenge. The Steelers’ defense is known for generating pressure and will look to exploit Gabriel’s lack of reps as a pro quarterback. Aaron Rodgers leads the Steelers’ offense with veteran poise and leadership. He has eight touchdown passes through four games and Rodgers will look to keep making explosive plays to DK Metcalf.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Steelers: Pittsburgh is 2-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Browns: Cleveland is 2-3 against the spread coming into this AFC North rivalry game.
- Over/Under Trends: The Steelers have had three of their first four games go over their totals this season. Cleveland has had three of their first five games stay under their totals.
Browns vs Steelers Model Projection
Score Projection: Steelers 24 – Browns 13
Win Probability: Steelers 74%, Browns 26%
Final Thoughts
Both defenses should dominate the proceedings in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. But I think that the Steelers’ defense will have the most success in this game. The combination of crowd noise and TJ Watt will prove to be too much pressure for Dillon Gabriel to handle in his first road start. My recommendation is to bet the Steelers to cover the spread at home against the Browns in Week 6.
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