Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season will feature an AFC North matchup as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Cincinnati arrives with one of the league’s most dangerous passing offenses led by Joe Burrow and his elite receiving duo. Cleveland will be entering the season without Deshaun Watson and veteran Joe Flacco is set to start. Before these division rivals kick off their season against one another, continue reading to get my Bengals vs Browns prediction.
Our Bengals vs Browns Pick
- Pick: Cleveland Browns +5.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: FOX
Bengals vs Browns Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals -5.5 | Bengals -238 / Browns +195 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- Cleveland is back to Joe Flacco as QB1. Deshaun Watson is recovering from an Achilles injury and backups Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders aren’t ready to take over the offense just yet. Flacco’s performance in this unusual situation will be a story to watch early in the year.
- The Bengals’ defense could be terrible once again this season after they prioritized paying Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins on offense. That could bail Flacco and the Browns’ offense out in Week 1.
- This is a division matchup to start the season for both teams. A win this week accomplishes a few things. It puts the winner a game up over the loser in the standings. But it also gives the winner an early head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
Quarterback Play
Joe Burrow returns after a spectacular 2024 campaign that included near-MVP level production. He remains the engine for Cincinnati’s offense and benefits from top-tier weapons at receiver coming back. The biggest questions for Burrow will be whether he can stay healthy and whether his defense can just give him a chance to go out there and win games for them.
Joe Flacco is a veteran who can push the ball downfield but has a different mobility and timing profile than Deshaun Watson. Turnover margin will be a deciding factor for Flacco and the Browns. They have a smaller margin for error on offense as they aren’t expected to be as good as Cincinnati in the vertical passing game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Over 265.5 yards |
| Ja’Marr Chase | Over 83.5 yards |
| Tee Higgins | Over 4.5 catches |
| Joe Flacco | Over 237.5 yards |
| Myles Garrett | Over 0.5 sacks |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Bengals went 2-0 against the Browns last season.
- Cincinnati won both games against Cleveland by a touchdown or more last season.
- Cleveland went 4-13 against the spread last season. Only the Tennessee Titans were worse against the spread.
- Cincinnati was 10-7 against the spread in 2024.
Bengals vs Browns Model Projection
- Score Projection: Cincinnati 27 – Cleveland 24
- Win Probability: Cincinnati 63%, Cleveland 37%
Final Thoughts
I’m not sure that the Browns are going to win this game. But I do think that Flacco will move the ball through the air against a dismal Bengals defense. I’ll take the points with the Browns as a home dog in a division matchup here, as I make this closer to a field goal game.
