The Miami Heat (4‑3) will head to the Mile High City to face the Denver Nuggets (4‑2) on Wednesday night. Both of these teams have winning records and will try to keep it that way with a win, with the Nuggets hoping to stay perfect on their home floor for the season. Here, you will find a full breakdown of this inter-conference matchup in the NBA, including my Heat vs Nuggets prediction.
Our Heat vs Nuggets Pick
- Pick: Miami Heat +9.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 5, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Miami is currently in the midst of a four‑game road trip, with this being the final stop on that trip. The Heat lost the first two games against the Spurs and Lakers before picking up a win over the Clippers in their last outing. The challenge of all that travel and the altitude in Denver should not be ignored going into this game.
Denver is riding a three‑game home winning streak and enters this game as a heavy favorite. Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double early in the season and has been orchestrating a Denver offense that ranks second in the NBA in offensive rating. They will try to continue to get what they want offensively against Miami tonight.
Injuries could be a major factor in the outcome of this game. Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is listed as probable with left‑calf tightness. He has not missed a game yet this season and his presence on the floor would be key for Denver. Miami guard Tyler Herro is officially out with an ankle injury and guard Kasparas Jakucionis is questionable with a groin issue. Terry Rozier is also out for Miami while dealing with the legal ramifications of a betting scandal.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- Denver swept Miami over two games last season. This is their first meeting of this year.
- Miami is winless in its last seven meetings with Denver.
- Miami is 5-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Denver is 3-3 against the spread going into this game.
- Miami has gone over the total in five of its first seven games.
- Denver is 4-2 to the over through its first six games.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | Over 19.5 Points |
| Jamal Murray | Under 21.5 Points |
| Nikola Jokic | Triple Double |
Heat vs Nuggets Model Projection
Score Projection: Denver Nuggets 123 – Miami Heat 116
Win Probability: Denver Nuggets 67%, Miami Heat 33%
Final Thoughts
When all is said and done, I expect the Denver Nuggets to come away with a win on their home floor on Wednesday night. With that said, I think that the Heat will cover the spread on the road in this game. Miami has been excellent against the spread so far this season and that should continue against a very good opponent in a game that will tell us a lot about both of these teams.
