Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors

Mar 25, 2025

Miami Heat

Miami Heat
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends
  • Props

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Pick – 3/25/2025


On March 25, 2025, the Golden State Warriors will face off against the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center in Miami, with the matchup set to tip-off at 7:30 PM ET. The Warriors enter the contest with a solid 41-30 record, riding high on a recent wave of success, having won 16 of their last 20 games. Despite their impressive form, they suffered a setback in their most recent outing, losing to the Atlanta Hawks 124-115 just three days ago. The extra days off could benefit the Warriors, allowing them to recover and prepare for this crucial road game.

Conversely, the Miami Heat sit at 30-41, struggling with their performance as they have lost 27 of their last 40 games. However, the Heat did manage a victory against the Charlotte Hornets in their last game, winning 122-105, which might provide a confidence boost heading into this clash.

Betting lines reflect the Warriors' status as favorites, with a spread of Warriors -5.0 and a Moneyline of -200, suggesting an implied win probability of 64%. Meanwhile, the Heat’s Moneyline sits at +170, giving them an implied win probability of 36%.

Sharp bettors seem to be leaning towards the Over on player props, particularly targeting Jimmy Butler’s Points and Rebounds, currently priced at Over 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-115). There’s a belief that this line may be mispriced, offering potential value for those looking to capitalize on Butler's performance.


Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Golden State Warriors 116.81 vs Miami Heat 106.32


Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Win Probabilities

TeamImplied Win %:Projected Win %:
Warriors65%80%
Heat35%20%

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Consensus

Spread Pick Consensus

-5.0/-118
71% GS
+5.0/-102
29% MIA

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-185
83% GS
+156
17% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

208.5/-110
29% UN
208.5/-110
71% OV

Stats

  • Team Stats Per Game
  • Team Stats Per 100 Poss
  • Four Factors
  • Analytics

Offense/Defense

GS
Team Stats Per Game
MIA
72
Games
72
40.7
FG
41.3
90.6
FGA
88.8
.449
FG%
.465
15.2
3Pt-FG
13.6
42.1
3Pt-FGA
38.0
.362
3Pt%
.359
25.5
2Pt-FG
27.7
48.5
2Pt-FGA
50.8
.525
2Pt%
.545
16.4
FT
14.0
21.7
FTA
17.9
.754
FT%
.782
12.5
ORB
10.9
33.0
DRB
34.0
45.5
TRB
44.9
29.0
AST
26.5
9.1
STL
7.6
5.0
BLK
4.7
14.1
TOV
13.7
19.4
PF
17.1
113.0
PTS
110.3

Defense/Offense

GS
Team Stats Per Game
MIA
72
Games
72
40.6
FG
39.8
87.2
FGA
86.2
.465
FG%
.461
13.2
3Pt-FG
13.6
36.3
3Pt-FGA
37.5
.364
3Pt%
.362
27.4
2Pt-FG
26.2
50.9
2Pt-FGA
48.8
.538
2Pt%
.537
16.6
FT
16.2
21.6
FTA
20.4
.769
FT%
.792
10.5
ORB
9.4
33.7
DRB
33.5
44.3
TRB
42.9
26.0
AST
26.2
7.5
STL
7.9
5.5
BLK
3.8
15.5
TOV
13.9
18.3
PF
15.7
111.0
PTS
109.2

Offense/Defense

GS
Four Factors
MIA
.533
eFG%
.542
12.3
TOV%
12.4
27.1
RB%
75.4
.181
FT/FGA
.157

Defense/Offense

GS
Four Factors
MIA
.541
eFG%
.540
13.8
TOV%
12.7
75.8
RB%
21.6
.191
FT/FGA
.187

Offense/Defense

GS
Team Stats Per 100 Poss
MIA
72
Games
72
41.1
FG
42.5
91.5
FGA
91.3
.449
FG%
.465
15.4
3Pt-FG
14.0
42.5
3Pt-FGA
39.1
.362
3Pt%
.359
25.7
2Pt-FG
28.4
49.0
2Pt-FGA
52.2
.525
2Pt%
.545
16.5
FT
14.4
21.9
FTA
18.4
.754
FT%
.782
12.6
ORB
11.2
33.3
DRB
34.9
46.0
TRB
46.2
29.2
AST
27.2
9.2
STL
7.8
5.0
BLK
4.9
14.2
TOV
14.1
19.5
PF
17.6
114.1
PTS
113.3

Defense/Offense

GS
Team Stats Per 100 Poss
MIA
72
Games
72
41.0
FG
40.8
88.0
FGA
88.6
.465
FG%
.461
13.3
3Pt-FG
13.9
36.6
3Pt-FGA
38.5
.364
3Pt%
.362
27.6
2Pt-FG
26.9
51.4
2Pt-FGA
50.1
.538
2Pt%
.537
16.8
FT
16.6
21.8
FTA
21.0
.769
FT%
.792
10.6
ORB
9.6
34.0
DRB
34.4
44.7
TRB
44.0
26.3
AST
26.9
7.6
STL
8.2
5.6
BLK
3.9
15.6
TOV
14.3
18.5
PF
16.1
112.0
PTS
112.2

GS
Analytics
MIA
41
Pythag Wins
34
31
Pythag Losses
38
2.03
Margin Of Victory
-1.08
114.1
O Rtg
112.2
112.0
D Rtg
113.3
98.9
Pace
96.1
.239
FTr
.237
.465
3PAr
.435
.564
TS%
.574

Odds

  • Spread
  • MoneyLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
GS MIA
GS MIA
Consensus
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-111)
-5.0 (-118)
+5.0 (-110)
-5.0 (-118)
+5.0 (-102)
-4.0 (-108)
+4.0 (-110)
-5.0 (-108)
+5.0 (-112)
-4.5 (-108)
+4.5 (-108)
-4.5 (-108)
+4.5 (-113)
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
+5.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-102)
+4.5 (-105)
-5.5 (-102)
+5.5 (-118)
Open
Current
Book
GS MIA
GS MIA
Consensus
-185
+154
-185
+156
-198
+164
-198
+164
-172
+144
-198
+166
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
218.5 (-110)
218.5 (-110)
208.5 (-107)
208.5 (-112)
221.5 (-110)
221.5 (-110)
208.0 (-110)
208.0 (-110)
218.0 (-110)
218.0 (-110)
208.0 (-110)
208.0 (-110)
217.5 (-110)
217.5 (-110)
209.0 (-108)
209.0 (-113)
218.5 (-110)
218.5 (-110)
216.5 (-110)
216.5 (-110)
218.5 (-110)
218.5 (-110)
207.5 (-115)
207.5 (-105)

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