Dricus Du Plessis and Kamaru Usman headline UFC Fight Night on Saturday, July 18, in Oklahoma City, in a matchup that carries major implications at middleweight. Du Plessis enters the bout looking to begin another title run after losing the UFC middleweight championship to Khamzat Chimaev in his most recent appearance. Usman, meanwhile, is attempting to become a legitimate contender in a second weight class after reviving his career with a victory over Joaquin Buckley. The former welterweight champion has spoken openly about chasing a second UFC title, while Du Plessis wants to prove that his championship loss was a temporary setback rather than the start of a decline.
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman Prediction
- Pick: Dricus Du Plessis to win by decision (+165)
- Confidence: 4/5
- Win Probability: Dricus Du Plessis 69%, Kamaru Usman 31%
This lines up as a competitive fight despite the betting line. Usman remains one of the strongest wrestlers in MMA and has the experience to control stretches of the contest, but several factors favor Du Plessis. At 185 pounds, Du Plessis is naturally larger, younger, and has proven he can maintain a high pace over 5 rounds against elite middleweights. He also owns victories over Sean Strickland twice, Israel Adesanya, and Robert Whittaker, giving him one of the strongest résumés in the division despite his recent loss to Chimaev.
Usman’s path to victory revolves around sustained wrestling pressure and top control. While Chimaev exposed areas that Du Plessis can improve in defensive grappling, Usman is 39 years old and has logged years of championship-level mileage. Wrestling for 25 minutes against a physically larger opponent is a different task than it would have been during Usman’s welterweight title reign. Du Plessis should enjoy advantages in size, power, output, and durability over the later rounds. If Usman cannot consistently secure takedowns, Du Plessis’ awkward striking combinations, heavy kicks, and pressure should allow him to bank rounds with the judges.
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman Parlay
- Du Plessis Moneyline (-250)
- Over 4.5 Rounds (-155)
- Du Plessis to land the most significant strikes (-205)
- Same Game Parlay Odds: +195
The foundation of the parlay is Du Plessis winning outright. His youth, size advantage, and recent performances against elite middleweights make him the safer side. While Usman remains one of the best defensive fighters of his generation, his move to middleweight limits the athletic advantages he previously enjoyed at 170 pounds.
The total rounds market also deserves attention. Both men have championship experience, excellent conditioning, and high-level defensive skills. Usman has historically been difficult to finish, while Du Plessis has shown the ability to fight effectively over 25 minutes. Unless one fighter completely dominates the wrestling exchanges, this matchup has a strong chance of reaching the fifth round before the judges determine the winner. Over 4.5 rounds also provides value as part of a same-game parlay.
Tale of the Tape
| Category | Dricus Du Plessis | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 39 |
| Height | 6’1″ | 6’0″ |
| Reach | 76 in | 76 in |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Professional Record | 23-3 | 21-4 |
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman Preview
Du Plessis enters this fight ranked near the top of the UFC middleweight division after suffering his first defeat in nearly 8 years against Khamzat Chimaev. Before that setback, he had assembled an impressive winning streak featuring victories over several former champions and top contenders. His pressure-heavy style has frustrated elite opponents because he attacks from unusual angles, mixes kicks with looping punches, and continues pressing forward even after absorbing clean shots. Although his technique often appears unconventional, it has consistently produced results against high-level competition.
Usman comes into Oklahoma City after restoring confidence with a dominant victory over Joaquin Buckley. That performance reminded fans why he spent years as one of the UFC’s pound-for-pound best fighters. His wrestling pedigree remains among the strongest in MMA, and his jab and straight right continue to be effective weapons. However, this is only his second fight at middleweight, and he’ll be giving away natural size against one of the division’s strongest competitors. Usman has stated that a victory would position him for a chance to become a two-division UFC champion.
Usman will likely look to close the gap early, forcing Du Plessis against the fence and working takedowns. Du Plessis, meanwhile, will attempt to keep the fight in open space where his combinations and movement become more effective. The South African has improved his defensive wrestling throughout his UFC run, and after losing the title largely because of Chimaev’s grappling, expect him to arrive with an increased focus on takedown defense.
Both fighters have proven capable of handling championship-level pressure, but Du Plessis has absorbed less cumulative damage over the course of his career. Usman’s knees have been a topic of discussion for several years, and while he continues to compete at a high level, maintaining explosive wrestling exchanges against a younger, naturally larger opponent over 25 minutes is a demanding assignment.
Usman has enough wrestling ability to create uncomfortable moments and could certainly win if he controls long stretches on the mat. Still, Du Plessis owns advantages in youth, physical strength, recent middleweight success, and offensive variety. Expect a competitive main event with several close rounds before Du Plessis does enough work on the feet and in the clinch to earn a unanimous decision and move back into the middleweight title picture.
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