Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/15/2025

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals on April 15, 2025, in a matchup of two struggling teams. Both sit near the bottom of their divisions, with Pittsburgh's record at 6-11 and Washington at 6-10. The Pirates have been particularly poor offensively, ranking 30th in MLB, while the Nationals boast a more competent offense at 9th overall.

Yesterday, the Pirates defeated the Nationals behind the pitching of Paul Skenes. As they prepare for the second game, both teams will be looking to turn their seasons around. Mitch Keller gets the nod for the Pirates, projected to pitch 5.8 innings with an average of 2.8 earned runs today. Although he ranks as the 179th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, there are indicators suggesting he may outperform expectations due to his low FIP of 2.75, hinting at some bad luck this season.

On the other side, Jake Irvin will take the mound for Washington, coming off a rough start with an ERA of 5.63, which ranks him among the worst in MLB. Despite his struggles, the projections indicate that Irvin might improve, particularly against a Pirates offense that strikes out frequently, ranking 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

With the game total set at an average of 8.5 runs and the Pirates holding a moneyline of -130, they have a projected team total of 4.45 runs. While their offense has been dismal overall, the outcome of this game could hinge on how Keller handles a Nationals lineup that has shown some power recently, including a recent performer with a 1.245 OPS. Overall, this matchup appears to favor Pittsburgh slightly, but both teams will need their pitchers to step up to achieve the win.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 12.4% more often this year (54.1%) than he did last year (41.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Bats such as Josh Bell with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitch Keller who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this year (93 mph) below where it was last season (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Tommy Pham is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 57 games at home (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.67, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.58

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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