Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 4/29/2025

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Phillies are sitting at 15-13 this season, enjoying an above-average performance, while the Nationals, at 13-16, have been struggling with a disappointing start. The Phillies enter this matchup favored heavily, boasting a moneyline of -185 and a high implied team total of 4.85 runs.

Philadelphia’s ace, Zack Wheeler, takes the mound with solid credentials. Ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced Power Rankings, Wheeler has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 3.62 this year. Projecting to pitch an average of 6.1 innings, he is expected to strike out 6.3 batters while allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, his tendency to allow an average of 5.4 hits and 1.4 walks could be concerning.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, who is ranked 54th among starting pitchers. With a 2-3 record and a remarkable ERA of 3.34, Gore is projected to throw 5.5 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters. Despite his ability to limit walks, he faces a Phillies lineup that has drawn the 3rd most walks in MLB, indicating a potential weakness for Gore.

Both offenses have been inconsistent, with the Phillies ranking 12th overall but struggling with power, as they sit 25th in home runs. Conversely, the Nationals are 20th in the league in overall offensive ranking. Given the favorable matchups, particularly with Wheeler’s elite status against a weaker Nationals offense, the Phillies look poised to capitalize today.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to league average, MacKenzie Gore has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 9.0 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Washington's 7.3° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the league this year: #30 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Washington Nationals have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.45 Units / 76% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 56% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.25, Philadelphia Phillies 4.86

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Get daily MLB picks here.