Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals on September 18, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup in the National League East. With the Mets sitting at 83-68, they are having an above-average season and are looking to secure their position as they eye a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Nationals, at 68-83, have struggled throughout the season and are firmly at the bottom of the standings.

In their last game, the Mets crushed the Nationals 10-1, maintaining their momentum, but they have been inconsistent recently despite their solid overall record. The Mets will send left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana to the mound, who has had a mixed year with a 9-9 record and a respectable ERA of 3.91. However, Quintana's advanced stats raise some red flags; his 4.58 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and his propensity for allowing 5.4 hits and 1.4 walks per game could lead to trouble against any offense.

On the other hand, the Nationals will counter with DJ Herz, who has a 4-7 record and a strong ERA of 3.70 this season. While Herz's projections indicate he is capable of keeping the game competitive, he faces a daunting task against a Mets' offense that ranks 5th in MLB for home runs. This power dynamic could be significant, especially considering Herz's high-flyball tendencies paired with the Mets' explosive lineup.

With a low Game Total set at 7.5 runs, there’s potential for a pitcher's duel, especially if both starters can find their rhythm. The Mets are the clear favorites on the betting line, but with the right approach, the Nationals could make this a tighter contest than expected.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

DJ Herz has tallied 14.2 outs per start this year, placing in the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nasim Nunez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84-mph dropping to 72.8-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana has added a slider to his pitch mix this season and has used it 5.1% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Jose Acuna is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Washington (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+22.72 Units / 142% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 81 of their last 146 games (+6.73 Units / 4% ROI)
• Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+8.70 Units / 73% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.51 vs New York Mets 4.05

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